Estimating epidemiological parameters using diagnostic testing data from low pathogenicity avian influenza infected turkey houses.
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
15 01 2021
15 01 2021
Historique:
received:
06
10
2020
accepted:
05
01
2021
entrez:
16
1
2021
pubmed:
17
1
2021
medline:
15
9
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Limiting spread of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) during an outbreak is critical to reduce the negative impact on poultry producers and local economies. Mathematical models of disease transmission can support outbreak control efforts by estimating relevant epidemiological parameters. In this article, diagnostic testing data from each house on a premises infected during a LPAI H5N2 outbreak in the state of Minnesota in the United States in 2018 was used to estimate the time of virus introduction and adequate contact rate, which determines the rate of disease spread. A well-defined most likely time of virus introduction, and upper and lower 95% credibility intervals were estimated for each house. The length of the 95% credibility intervals ranged from 11 to 22 with a mean of 17 days. In some houses the contact rate estimates were also well-defined; however, the estimated upper 95% credibility interval bound for the contact rate was occasionally dependent on the upper bound of the prior distribution. The estimated modes ranged from 0.5 to 6.0 with a mean of 2.8 contacts per day. These estimates can be improved with early detection, increased testing of monitored premises, and combining the results of multiple barns that possess similar production systems.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33452377
doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-81254-z
pii: 10.1038/s41598-021-81254-z
pmc: PMC7810853
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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