Geospatial clustering of meningitis: an early warning system (hotspot) for potential meningitis outbreak in upper east region of Ghana.

We mapped and generated hot spots for potential meningitis outbreak from existing data in Upper East region, Ghana. This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 2017. Meningitis data in the Upper East Region from January 2007, to December 2016. We used spatial tools in Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and Geoda to draw choropleth map of meningitis incidence, case fatality and hotspot for potential meningitis outbreak. A total of 2312 meningitis cases (suspected and confirmed) were recorded from 2016-2017 with median incidence of 15.0cases/100,000 population (min 6.3, max 47.8). Median age of cases was 15 years (IQR: 6-31 years). Most (44.2%) of those affected were 10 years and below. Females (51.2%) constituted the highest proportion. Median incidence from 2007-2011 was 20cases/100,000 population (Min 11.3, Max 39.9) whilst from 2012-2016 was 11.1cases/100,000 populations (Min 6.3, Max 47.8). A total of 28 significant hotspot sub-districts clusters (p=0.024) were identified with 7 High-high risk areas as potential meningitis outbreak spots. The occurrence of meningitis is not random, spatial cluster with high -high-risk exist in some sub-districts. Overall meningitis incidence and fatality rate have declined in the region with district variations. Districts with high meningitis incidence and fatality rates should be targeted for intervention. Author EA was supported by the West Africa Health Organization (Ref.: Prog/A17IEpidemSurveillN°57212014/mcrt).

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Conflict of interest: None declared