Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season.
carryover effects
environmental driver
lagged effects
plant demography
precipitation
sliding window
temperature
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 2021
05 2021
Historique:
revised:
19
12
2020
received:
06
07
2020
accepted:
28
12
2020
pubmed:
16
2
2021
medline:
24
4
2021
entrez:
15
2
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long-term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess current a priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding-window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, and Cryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding-window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Review
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1927-1941Subventions
Organisme : Sigma Xi
Organisme : Natural Environment Research Council
ID : IRF NE/M018458/1
Organisme : Sevilleta LTER
ID : 1440478
Organisme : Sevilleta LTER
ID : 1655499
Organisme : Sevilleta LTER
ID : 1748133
Organisme : National Science Foundation, Division of Environmental Biology
ID : 1543651
Organisme : National Science Foundation, Division of Environmental Biology
ID : 1754468
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : BSR 81-08387
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB 0238331
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB 0922080
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB 1354104
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB 1912006
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB 75-15422
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB 78-07784
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : DEB 94-08382
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : IBN 95-27833
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : IBN 98-14509
Organisme : Max planck institute for Demographic Research
Organisme : Lewis and Clark fund
Organisme : Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
ID : FZT 118
Organisme : Helmholtz Association
Organisme : Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung
Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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