Controlling the Spatial Spread of a Xylella Epidemic.
Control strategies
Epidemics
Mathematical model
Numerical simulations
Olive trees
Reaction–diffusion models
Regional control
Xylella fastidiosa
Journal
Bulletin of mathematical biology
ISSN: 1522-9602
Titre abrégé: Bull Math Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0401404
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
17 02 2021
17 02 2021
Historique:
received:
31
08
2020
accepted:
31
12
2020
entrez:
17
2
2021
pubmed:
18
2
2021
medline:
30
10
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In a recent paper by one of the authors and collaborators, motivated by the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, which has been ongoing in Southern Italy since 2013, a simple epidemiological model describing this epidemic was presented. Beside the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, the main players considered in the model are its insect vectors, Philaenus spumarius, and the host plants (olive trees and weeds) of the insects and of the bacterium. The model was based on a system of ordinary differential equations, the analysis of which provided interesting results about possible equilibria of the epidemic system and guidelines for its numerical simulations. Although the model presented there was mathematically rather simplified, its analysis has highlighted threshold parameters that could be the target of control strategies within an integrated pest management framework, not requiring the removal of the productive resource represented by the olive trees. Indeed, numerical simulations support the outcomes of the mathematical analysis, according to which the removal of a suitable amount of weed biomass (reservoir of Xylella fastidiosa) from olive orchards and surrounding areas resulted in the most efficient strategy to control the spread of the OQDS. In addition, as expected, the adoption of more resistant olive tree cultivars has been shown to be a good strategy, though less cost-effective, in controlling the pathogen. In this paper for a more realistic description and a clearer interpretation of the proposed control measures, a spatial structure of the epidemic system has been included, but, in order to keep mathematical technicalities to a minimum, only two players have been described in a dynamical way, trees and insects, while the weed biomass is taken to be a given quantity. The control measures have been introduced only on a subregion of the whole habitat, in order to contain costs of intervention. We show that such a practice can lead to the eradication of an epidemic outbreak. Numerical simulations confirm both the results of the previous paper and the theoretical results of the model with a spatial structure, though subject to regional control only.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33594616
doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00861-z
pii: 10.1007/s11538-021-00861-z
pmc: PMC7886609
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
32Références
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