Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Basic Reproduction Number
COVID-19
/ epidemiology
COVID-19 Vaccines
Child
Child, Preschool
Communicable Disease Control
England
/ epidemiology
Europe
/ epidemiology
Female
Humans
Infant
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Mutation
SARS-CoV-2
/ genetics
Severity of Illness Index
Socioeconomic Factors
United States
/ epidemiology
Viral Load
Young Adult
Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 04 2021
09 04 2021
Historique:
received:
23
12
2020
accepted:
26
02
2021
pubmed:
5
3
2021
medline:
24
4
2021
entrez:
4
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33658326
pii: science.abg3055
doi: 10.1126/science.abg3055
pmc: PMC8128288
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
COVID-19 Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 206250/Z/17/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC_19027
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC_19065
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/S017968/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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