Mathematical modelling of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.
Cost-effectiveness
Low- and middle-income countries
Mathematical modelling
Respiratory syncytial virus
Systematic review
Vaccine
Journal
Epidemics
ISSN: 1878-0067
Titre abrégé: Epidemics
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101484711
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2021
06 2021
Historique:
received:
09
09
2020
revised:
31
01
2021
accepted:
17
02
2021
pubmed:
5
3
2021
medline:
26
10
2021
entrez:
4
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Due to high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), international funding organizations have prioritized the development of RSV vaccines. Mathematical models of RSV will play an important role in assessing the relative value of these interventions. Our objectives were to provide an overview of the existing RSV modelling literature in LMIC and summarize available results on population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. We searched MEDLINE from 2000 to 2020 for English language publications that employed a mathematical model of RSV calibrated to LMIC. Qualitative data were extracted on study and model characteristics. Quantitative data were collected on key model input assumptions and base case effectiveness and cost-effectiveness estimates for various immunization strategies. Of the 283 articles reviewed, 15 met inclusion criteria. Ten studies used modelling techniques to explore RSV transmission and/or natural history, while eight studies evaluated RSV vaccines and/or monoclonal antibodies, three of which included cost-effectiveness analyses. Six studies employed deterministic compartmental models, five studies employed individual transmission models, and four studies used different types of cohort models. Nearly every model was calibrated to at least one middle-income country, while four were calibrated to low-income countries. The mathematical modelling literature in LMIC has demonstrated the potential effectiveness of RSV vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. This review has demonstrated the importance of accounting for seasonality, social contact rates, immunity from prior infection and maternal antibody transfer. Future models should consider incorporating individual-level risk factors, subtype-specific effects, long-term sequelae of RSV infections, and out-of-hospital mortality.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Due to high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), international funding organizations have prioritized the development of RSV vaccines. Mathematical models of RSV will play an important role in assessing the relative value of these interventions. Our objectives were to provide an overview of the existing RSV modelling literature in LMIC and summarize available results on population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.
METHODS
We searched MEDLINE from 2000 to 2020 for English language publications that employed a mathematical model of RSV calibrated to LMIC. Qualitative data were extracted on study and model characteristics. Quantitative data were collected on key model input assumptions and base case effectiveness and cost-effectiveness estimates for various immunization strategies.
FINDINGS
Of the 283 articles reviewed, 15 met inclusion criteria. Ten studies used modelling techniques to explore RSV transmission and/or natural history, while eight studies evaluated RSV vaccines and/or monoclonal antibodies, three of which included cost-effectiveness analyses. Six studies employed deterministic compartmental models, five studies employed individual transmission models, and four studies used different types of cohort models. Nearly every model was calibrated to at least one middle-income country, while four were calibrated to low-income countries.
INTERPRETATION
The mathematical modelling literature in LMIC has demonstrated the potential effectiveness of RSV vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. This review has demonstrated the importance of accounting for seasonality, social contact rates, immunity from prior infection and maternal antibody transfer. Future models should consider incorporating individual-level risk factors, subtype-specific effects, long-term sequelae of RSV infections, and out-of-hospital mortality.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33662812
pii: S1755-4365(21)00007-4
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100444
pmc: PMC8262087
mid: NIHMS1714505
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Systematic Review
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
100444Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : T32 AI007433
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Références
J Allergy Clin Immunol. 2009 May;123(5):1055-61, 1061.e1
pubmed: 19361850
Clin Infect Dis. 2019 Jun 18;69(1):151-154
pubmed: 30561563
J Infect Dis. 2014 Jun 1;209(11):1685-92
pubmed: 24367040
Clin Microbiol Rev. 1999 Apr;12(2):298-309
pubmed: 10194461
Math Biosci. 2001 Aug;172(2):95-113
pubmed: 11520501
Epidemiol Infect. 2005 Apr;133(2):279-89
pubmed: 15816153
Virus Evol. 2017 Mar 11;3(1):vex006
pubmed: 28458916
Am J Epidemiol. 2012 Nov 1;176(9):794-802
pubmed: 23059788
Am J Dis Child. 1986 Jun;140(6):543-6
pubmed: 3706232
Lancet. 2017 Sep 2;390(10098):946-958
pubmed: 28689664
Vaccine. 2007 Sep 28;25(39-40):6922-9
pubmed: 17707959
Lancet Infect Dis. 2018 Oct;18(10):e295-e311
pubmed: 29914800
PLoS One. 2014 Feb 27;9(2):e90094
pubmed: 24587222
Nat Commun. 2019 Dec 4;10(1):5512
pubmed: 31797866
Clin Dev Immunol. 2012;2012:985646
pubmed: 22235228
Vaccines (Basel). 2017 May 18;5(2):
pubmed: 28524109
PLoS One. 2016 Sep 30;11(9):e0163567
pubmed: 27689356
Pediatrics. 2016 Apr;137(4):
pubmed: 27025960
PLoS One. 2015 Sep 21;10(9):e0138018
pubmed: 26390032
Elife. 2020 Mar 27;9:
pubmed: 32216871
Epidemics. 2019 Jun;27:1-11
pubmed: 30591267
Lancet Public Health. 2017 Jul 31;2(8):e367-e374
pubmed: 28804787
Trop Med Int Health. 1998 Apr;3(4):268-80
pubmed: 9623927
Ann Trop Paediatr. 2002 Dec;22(4):325-32
pubmed: 12530282
Vaccine. 2017 Jan 5;35(2):403-409
pubmed: 27914740
Vaccine. 2019 Nov 28;37(50):7355-7362
pubmed: 28302410
Vaccine. 2018 Jul 25;36(31):4693-4700
pubmed: 29941327
J Infect Dis. 2013 Dec 15;208 Suppl 3:S246-54
pubmed: 24265484
Math Biosci. 2007 Sep;209(1):222-39
pubmed: 17335858
Salud Publica Mex. 2012 Jan-Feb;54(1):47-59
pubmed: 22286828
Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Nov 15;164(10):936-44
pubmed: 16968863
J Infect Dis. 1990 Dec;162(6):1283-90
pubmed: 2230258
Pediatr Pulmonol. 2016 Dec;51(12):1382-1392
pubmed: 27152482
Am J Epidemiol. 2016 Mar 15;183(6):574-82
pubmed: 26940116
J Infect Dis. 2018 Apr 11;217(9):1356-1364
pubmed: 29390105
BMC Med. 2020 Apr 6;18(1):82
pubmed: 32248817
PLoS One. 2019 Jul 9;14(7):e0219323
pubmed: 31287832
J Infect Dis. 2016 Feb 1;213(3):423-31
pubmed: 26238686
Theor Popul Biol. 2016 Aug;110:78-85
pubmed: 27155294
Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2010 Nov 15;182(10):1305-14
pubmed: 20622030
Lancet Infect Dis. 2016 Dec;16(12):1330-1331
pubmed: 27998593
BMC Med. 2015 Mar 10;13:49
pubmed: 25857701
J Pediatr. 2003 Nov;143(5 Suppl):S112-7
pubmed: 14615709