An early warning approach to monitor COVID-19 activity with multiple digital traces in near real time.


Journal

Science advances
ISSN: 2375-2548
Titre abrégé: Sci Adv
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101653440

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
03 2021
Historique:
received: 07 07 2020
accepted: 19 01 2021
entrez: 6 3 2021
pubmed: 7 3 2021
medline: 19 3 2021
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Given still-high levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) susceptibility and inconsistent transmission-containing strategies, outbreaks have continued to emerge across the United States. Until effective vaccines are widely deployed, curbing COVID-19 will require carefully timed nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). A COVID-19 early warning system is vital for this. Here, we evaluate digital data streams as early indicators of state-level COVID-19 activity from 1 March to 30 September 2020. We observe that increases in digital data stream activity anticipate increases in confirmed cases and deaths by 2 to 3 weeks. Confirmed cases and deaths also decrease 2 to 4 weeks after NPI implementation, as measured by anonymized, phone-derived human mobility data. We propose a means of harmonizing these data streams to identify future COVID-19 outbreaks. Our results suggest that combining disparate health and behavioral data may help identify disease activity changes weeks before observation using traditional epidemiological monitoring.

Identifiants

pubmed: 33674304
pii: 7/10/eabd6989
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd6989
pmc: PMC7935356
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Subventions

Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : R01 GM130668
Pays : United States

Commentaires et corrections

Type : UpdateOf

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

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Auteurs

Nicole E Kogan (NE)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. msantill@fas.harvard.edu nkogan@g.harvard.edu leonardo.clemente@childrens.harvard.edu parker_liautaud@g.harvard.edu.
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

Leonardo Clemente (L)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. msantill@fas.harvard.edu nkogan@g.harvard.edu leonardo.clemente@childrens.harvard.edu parker_liautaud@g.harvard.edu.

Parker Liautaud (P)

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA. msantill@fas.harvard.edu nkogan@g.harvard.edu leonardo.clemente@childrens.harvard.edu parker_liautaud@g.harvard.edu.

Justin Kaashoek (J)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Nicholas B Link (NB)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

Andre T Nguyen (AT)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Booz Allen Hamilton, Columbia, MD, USA.

Fred S Lu (FS)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Peter Huybers (P)

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Bernd Resch (B)

Department of Geoinformatics - Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
Center for Geographic Analysis, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Clemens Havas (C)

Department of Geoinformatics - Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.

Andreas Petutschnig (A)

Department of Geoinformatics - Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.

Jessica Davis (J)

Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

Matteo Chinazzi (M)

Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

Backtosch Mustafa (B)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.

William P Hanage (WP)

Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

Alessandro Vespignani (A)

Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

Mauricio Santillana (M)

Computational Health Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. msantill@fas.harvard.edu nkogan@g.harvard.edu leonardo.clemente@childrens.harvard.edu parker_liautaud@g.harvard.edu.
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.

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Classifications MeSH