Interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the performance of drug overdose morbidity indicators shows discontinuities across the ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM transition.

On 1 October 2015, the USA transitioned from the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10-CM). Considering the major changes to drug overdose coding, we examined how using different approaches to define all-drug overdose and opioid overdose morbidity indicators in ICD-9-CM impacts longitudinal analyses that span the transition, using emergency department (ED) and hospitalisation data from six states' hospital discharge data systems. We calculated monthly all-drug and opioid overdose ED visit rates and hospitalisation rates (per 100 000 population) by state, starting in January 2010. We applied three ICD-9-CM indicator definitions that included identical all-drug or opioid-related codes but restricted the number of fields searched to varying degrees. Under ICD-10-CM, all fields were searched for relevant codes. Adjusting for seasonality and autocorrelation, we used interrupted time series models with level and slope change parameters in October 2015 to compare trend continuity when employing different ICD-9-CM definitions. Most states observed consistent or increased capture of all-drug and opioid overdose cases in ICD-10-CM coded hospital discharge data compared with ICD-9-CM. More inclusive ICD-9-CM indicator definitions reduced the magnitude of significant level changes, but the effect of the transition was not eliminated. The coding change appears to have introduced systematic differences in measurement of drug overdoses before and after 1 October 2015. When using hospital discharge data for drug overdose surveillance, researchers and decision makers should be aware that trends spanning the transition may not reflect actual changes in drug overdose rates.

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Competing interests: None declared.