Mitigation potential of black carbon emissions from on-road vehicles in China.

Black carbon (BC) is the most potent light-absorbing component of particulate matter and can have a significant warming impact. On-road vehicles are a major source of BC and a significant contributor to global warming. This paper establishes an updated inventory to quantify the mitigation potential of efforts to control BC emissions from on-road transportation in China. The total emissions of BC from on-road vehicles in China were 152.1 thousand tons in 2017. Heavy-duty diesel fleets accounted for a large percentage of emissions, whereas light-duty gasoline fleets presented a gradually increasing trend of emissions. Historically, comprehensive control policies for on-road vehicle emissions have achieved substantial BC reductions, with a 45% decrease in 2017 compared to 2000. With the implementation of stringent control policies and the development of advanced control technologies, BC emissions from the on-road sector may have a greater reduction potential in the future. By 2035, three various future scenarios representing different stringency levels of emission controls will reduce BC emissions by 58%, 90%, and 93% relative to 2017. The major benefits in reducing BC emissions result from more stringent emission standards and the accelerated retirement of older heavy-duty diesel vehicles. The shorter lifetime of BC than that of CO

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Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.