Stated versus revealed preferences: An approach to reduce bias.
causal inference
choice experiments
external validity
hypothetical bias
revealed preferences
stated preferences
Journal
Health economics
ISSN: 1099-1050
Titre abrégé: Health Econ
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9306780
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 2021
05 2021
Historique:
revised:
17
12
2020
received:
23
01
2020
accepted:
22
01
2021
pubmed:
11
3
2021
medline:
30
10
2021
entrez:
10
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Stated preference (SP) survey responses may not predict actual behavior, leading to hypothetical bias. We developed an approach that harnesses large-scale routine data to help SP surveys provide more accurate estimates of revealed preferences (RPs), within a study which elicited preferences for alternative changes to the blood service in England. The SP survey responses were used to predict the mean number of annual whole blood donations. Ex ante, the iterative survey design estimated hypothetical bias by contrasting pilot SP survey responses (N = 1254), with individually linked data on RPs, to inform the main SP survey design (N = 25,187). Ex post, the analysis recognized mediation of the relationship between SP and RP when blood donation is deferred. The pilot survey reported that donors' intended donation frequency of 3.2 (men) and 2.6 (women) times per year, exceeded their actual frequency by 41% and 30% respectively. Choice scenario attributes for the main SP survey were then modified, and over-prediction subsequently decreased to 34% for men and 16% for women. The mediating effect of deferrals explained 29% (men) and 86% (women) of the residual discrepancy between SP and RP. Future studies can use this approach to reduce hypothetical bias, and provide more accurate predictions for decision-making.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1095-1123Subventions
Organisme : Department of Health
ID : 13/54/62
Pays : United Kingdom
Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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