A forecasting model to estimate the drop in blood supplies during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy.
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Blood Banks
/ supply & distribution
Blood Donors
/ statistics & numerical data
Blood Safety
/ statistics & numerical data
COVID-19
/ diagnosis
Donor Selection
/ statistics & numerical data
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Italy
/ epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Pandemics
SARS-CoV-2
Young Adult
SARS-CoV-2
blood donations
safety
self-sufficiency
Journal
Transfusion medicine (Oxford, England)
ISSN: 1365-3148
Titre abrégé: Transfus Med
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9301182
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jun 2021
Jun 2021
Historique:
revised:
15
12
2020
received:
30
06
2020
accepted:
09
02
2021
pubmed:
12
3
2021
medline:
17
6
2021
entrez:
11
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To estimate the number of actually Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected blood donors applying a statistical forecasting model. Following the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, a drop in blood donation has been observed. It is crucial to determine the actual number of potential SARS-CoV-2-positive donors to define the measures and ensure adequate blood supply. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity, calculated on the general population, was applied to the donor population by estimating the number of positive subjects. The calculation model was validated by the linear interpolation method. The number of blood units actually discarded based on post-donation information was also taken into account. Three months after the outbreak, 5322 donors were estimated to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were therefore potentially excluded from donation. A total of units of blood components were discarded following post donation information. The estimated number of donors deceased (180) and the number of clinically recovered individuals in the same period was also considered. This forecasting model can be used to obtain information on blood donors' involvement during future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, especially in case of changes concerning epidemiology, incidence by age bracket and geographical distribution and also for new outbreaks of emerging viruses.
Sections du résumé
OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the number of actually Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected blood donors applying a statistical forecasting model.
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Following the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, a drop in blood donation has been observed. It is crucial to determine the actual number of potential SARS-CoV-2-positive donors to define the measures and ensure adequate blood supply.
METHODS
METHODS
The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity, calculated on the general population, was applied to the donor population by estimating the number of positive subjects. The calculation model was validated by the linear interpolation method. The number of blood units actually discarded based on post-donation information was also taken into account.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Three months after the outbreak, 5322 donors were estimated to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were therefore potentially excluded from donation. A total of units of blood components were discarded following post donation information. The estimated number of donors deceased (180) and the number of clinically recovered individuals in the same period was also considered.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
This forecasting model can be used to obtain information on blood donors' involvement during future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, especially in case of changes concerning epidemiology, incidence by age bracket and geographical distribution and also for new outbreaks of emerging viruses.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33694217
doi: 10.1111/tme.12764
pmc: PMC8207130
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
200-205Informations de copyright
© 2021 British Blood Transfusion Society.
Références
Transfus Med. 2021 Jun;31(3):200-205
pubmed: 33694217
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