Epidemiological Analysis and the Nomogram for Possible Risk Factors for Severe Microtia.
Journal
The Journal of craniofacial surgery
ISSN: 1536-3732
Titre abrégé: J Craniofac Surg
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9010410
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Historique:
entrez:
11
3
2021
pubmed:
12
3
2021
medline:
24
6
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Microtia is a severe congenital malformation of the external ear. This study aimed to explore the epidemiologic characteristics and the possible risk factors in patients with severe microtia in China, and integrate significant variables into a predictive nomogram. A total of 965 patients with microtia were included. This retrospective case study was conducted from July 2014 to July 2019 at Plastic Surgery Hospital in China. The detailed questionnaires concerning potential risk factors were completed and data were gathered. Chi-Square and Fisher tests were used to analyze the variables, and a multivariate logistic regression model was used to select variables related to severe microtia, and then construct a nomogram. The nomogram model was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve. Bootstraps with 1000 resamples were applied to these analyses. Of the 965 microtia patients, 629 (65.2%) were male and 867 (89.8%) were sporadic. The cases were observed more commonly in unilateral (83.1%) and right-sided (52.0%). And multiple malformations were observed in 392 (40.6%) cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that maternal age, miscarriage frequency, virus infection, anemia, using progesterone, paternal alcohol intake, and topography of living areas were associated with a higher risk of severe microtia. All the significant variables were combined into a predictive nomogram (C-index = 0.755,95% CI = 0.703-0.807). Higher prediction accuracy (adjusted C-index = 0.749) was further verified via bootstrap validation. The calibration plot showed good performance, and the ROCs curve analysis demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity. Most microtia patients are male, sporadic, and accompanied by other malformations, which are similar to the phenotypic analysis results of other studies. A nomogram predicting severe microtia was constructed to provide scientific guidance for individualized prevention in clinical practice.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Microtia is a severe congenital malformation of the external ear. This study aimed to explore the epidemiologic characteristics and the possible risk factors in patients with severe microtia in China, and integrate significant variables into a predictive nomogram.
METHODS
METHODS
A total of 965 patients with microtia were included. This retrospective case study was conducted from July 2014 to July 2019 at Plastic Surgery Hospital in China. The detailed questionnaires concerning potential risk factors were completed and data were gathered. Chi-Square and Fisher tests were used to analyze the variables, and a multivariate logistic regression model was used to select variables related to severe microtia, and then construct a nomogram. The nomogram model was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve. Bootstraps with 1000 resamples were applied to these analyses.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Of the 965 microtia patients, 629 (65.2%) were male and 867 (89.8%) were sporadic. The cases were observed more commonly in unilateral (83.1%) and right-sided (52.0%). And multiple malformations were observed in 392 (40.6%) cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that maternal age, miscarriage frequency, virus infection, anemia, using progesterone, paternal alcohol intake, and topography of living areas were associated with a higher risk of severe microtia. All the significant variables were combined into a predictive nomogram (C-index = 0.755,95% CI = 0.703-0.807). Higher prediction accuracy (adjusted C-index = 0.749) was further verified via bootstrap validation. The calibration plot showed good performance, and the ROCs curve analysis demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Most microtia patients are male, sporadic, and accompanied by other malformations, which are similar to the phenotypic analysis results of other studies. A nomogram predicting severe microtia was constructed to provide scientific guidance for individualized prevention in clinical practice.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33705069
doi: 10.1097/SCS.0000000000007068
pii: 00001665-202104000-00118
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
e184-e189Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 by Mutaz B. Habal, MD.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
This study was sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 81571924, 81701930). The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
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