The global burden of yellow fever.
Africa
/ epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks
Global Burden of Disease
Global Health
Humans
Mass Vaccination
/ statistics & numerical data
Models, Theoretical
Seroepidemiologic Studies
South America
/ epidemiology
Surveys and Questionnaires
Vaccination
/ methods
Yellow Fever
/ epidemiology
Yellow Fever Vaccine
/ therapeutic use
epidemiology
global health
mathematical modelling
vaccine impact
vector-borne
virus
yellow fever
Journal
eLife
ISSN: 2050-084X
Titre abrégé: Elife
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101579614
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
16 03 2021
16 03 2021
Historique:
received:
06
11
2020
accepted:
23
02
2021
entrez:
16
3
2021
pubmed:
17
3
2021
medline:
26
8
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000-173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000-82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%-77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33722340
doi: 10.7554/eLife.64670
pii: 64670
pmc: PMC7963473
doi:
pii:
Substances chimiques
Yellow Fever Vaccine
0
Banques de données
Dryad
['10.5061/dryad.47v3c']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : World Health Organization
ID : 001
Pays : International
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
ID : OPP1117543
Informations de copyright
© 2021, Gaythorpe et al.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
KG, AH, KJ, DG, LC, TG, NF No competing interests declared
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