Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
15 03 2021
15 03 2021
Historique:
received:
08
06
2020
accepted:
10
02
2021
entrez:
16
3
2021
pubmed:
17
3
2021
medline:
1
4
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33723237
doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y
pii: 10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y
pmc: PMC7961049
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1671Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/N013638/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 206250/Z/17/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
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