Risk Factors for Pneumonia and Death in Adult Patients With Seasonal Influenza and Establishment of Prediction Scores: A Population-Based Study.
insurance claims data
mortality rate
pneumonia
prediction model
seasonal influenza
Journal
Open forum infectious diseases
ISSN: 2328-8957
Titre abrégé: Open Forum Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101637045
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Mar 2021
Mar 2021
Historique:
received:
24
11
2020
accepted:
01
02
2021
entrez:
19
3
2021
pubmed:
20
3
2021
medline:
20
3
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Seasonal influenza remains a global health problem; however, there are limited data on the specific relative risks for pneumonia and death among outpatients considered to be at high risk for influenza complications. This population-based study aimed to develop prediction models for determining the risk of influenza-related pneumonia and death. We included patients diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2016 and 2017 (main cohort, n = 25 659), those diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 (validation cohort 1, n = 16 727), and those diagnosed between 2017 and 2018 (validation cohort 2, n = 34 219). Prediction scores were developed based on the incidence and independent predictors of pneumonia and death identified using multivariate analyses, and patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on total scores. In the main cohort, age, gender, and certain comorbidities (dementia, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and others) were independent predictors of pneumonia and death. The 28-day pneumonia incidence was 0.5%, 4.1%, and 10.8% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.75); the 28-day mortality was 0.05%, 0.7%, and 3.3% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.85). In validation cohort 1, c-indices for the models for pneumonia and death were 0.75 and 0.87, respectively. In validation cohort 2, c-indices for the models were 0.74 and 0.87, respectively. We successfully developed and validated simple-to-use risk prediction models, which would promptly provide useful information for treatment decisions in primary care settings.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Seasonal influenza remains a global health problem; however, there are limited data on the specific relative risks for pneumonia and death among outpatients considered to be at high risk for influenza complications. This population-based study aimed to develop prediction models for determining the risk of influenza-related pneumonia and death.
METHODS
METHODS
We included patients diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2016 and 2017 (main cohort, n = 25 659), those diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 (validation cohort 1, n = 16 727), and those diagnosed between 2017 and 2018 (validation cohort 2, n = 34 219). Prediction scores were developed based on the incidence and independent predictors of pneumonia and death identified using multivariate analyses, and patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on total scores.
RESULTS
RESULTS
In the main cohort, age, gender, and certain comorbidities (dementia, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and others) were independent predictors of pneumonia and death. The 28-day pneumonia incidence was 0.5%, 4.1%, and 10.8% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.75); the 28-day mortality was 0.05%, 0.7%, and 3.3% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.85). In validation cohort 1, c-indices for the models for pneumonia and death were 0.75 and 0.87, respectively. In validation cohort 2, c-indices for the models were 0.74 and 0.87, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
We successfully developed and validated simple-to-use risk prediction models, which would promptly provide useful information for treatment decisions in primary care settings.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33738319
doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab068
pii: ofab068
pmc: PMC7953663
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
ofab068Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.
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