Effects of environmental variability on superspreading transmission events in stochastic epidemic models.
60H30
60J28
92D30
Ebola
Environmental variability
MERS
Stochastic models
Superspreader
Journal
Infectious Disease Modelling
ISSN: 2468-0427
Titre abrégé: Infect Dis Model
Pays: China
ID NLM: 101692406
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
received:
16
01
2021
revised:
02
03
2021
accepted:
02
03
2021
pubmed:
24
3
2021
medline:
24
3
2021
entrez:
23
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Superspreaders (individuals with a high propensity for disease spread) have played a pivotal role in recent emerging and re-emerging diseases. In disease outbreak studies, host heterogeneity based on demographic (e.g. age, sex, vaccination status) and environmental (e.g. climate, urban/rural residence, clinics) factors are critical for the spread of infectious diseases, such as Ebola and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Transmission rates can vary as demographic and environmental factors are altered naturally or due to modified behaviors in response to the implementation of public health strategies. In this work, we develop stochastic models to explore the effects of demographic and environmental variability on human-to-human disease transmission rates among superspreaders in the case of Ebola and MERS. We show that the addition of environmental variability results in reduced probability of outbreak occurrence, however the severity of outbreaks that do occur increases. These observations have implications for public health strategies that aim to control environmental variables.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33754134
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.03.001
pii: S2468-0427(21)00022-1
pmc: PMC7969833
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
560-583Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
None.
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