Mechanisms of recurrent outbreak of COVID-19: a model-based study.
COVID-19
Government policy
Logistic model
Recurrent outbreak
SEIDR model
Journal
Nonlinear dynamics
ISSN: 0924-090X
Titre abrégé: Nonlinear Dyn
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101492213
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
received:
05
11
2020
accepted:
12
03
2021
pubmed:
25
3
2021
medline:
25
3
2021
entrez:
24
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Recurrent outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in many countries around the world. We developed a twofold framework in this study, which is composed by one novel descriptive model to depict the recurrent global outbreaks of COVID-19 and one dynamic model to understand the intrinsic mechanisms of recurrent outbreaks. We used publicly available data of cumulative infected cases from 1 January 2020 to 2 January 2021 in 30 provinces in China and 43 other countries around the world for model validation and further analyses. These time series data could be well fitted by the new descriptive model. Through this quantitative approach, we discovered two main mechanisms that strongly correlate with the extent of the recurrent outbreak: the sudden increase in cases imported from overseas and the relaxation of local government epidemic prevention policies. The compartmental dynamical model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Dead and Recovered (SEIDR) Model) could reproduce the obvious recurrent outbreak of the epidemics and showed that both imported infected cases and the relaxation of government policies have a causal effect on the emergence of a new wave of outbreak, along with variations in the temperature index. Meanwhile, recurrent outbreaks affect consumer confidence and have a significant influence on GDP. These results support the necessity of policies such as travel bans, testing of people upon entry, and consistency of government prevention and control policies in avoiding future waves of epidemics and protecting economy.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33758464
doi: 10.1007/s11071-021-06371-w
pii: 6371
pmc: PMC7972336
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
1169-1185Informations de copyright
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2021.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflict of interestThe authors declare no competing interest.
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