Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe.
Journal
Science advances
ISSN: 2375-2548
Titre abrégé: Sci Adv
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101653440
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2021
03 2021
Historique:
received:
12
09
2020
accepted:
05
02
2021
entrez:
27
3
2021
pubmed:
28
3
2021
medline:
28
3
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33771862
pii: 7/13/eabd7658
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abd7658
pmc: PMC7997511
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
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