Tailoring Surveillance Colonoscopy in Patients With Advanced Adenomas.
Colonoscopy
Colorectal Neoplasia
Surveillance
Journal
Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association
ISSN: 1542-7714
Titre abrégé: Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101160775
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 2022
04 2022
Historique:
received:
07
12
2020
revised:
06
03
2021
accepted:
23
03
2021
pubmed:
30
3
2021
medline:
17
3
2022
entrez:
29
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Patients with advanced colorectal adenomas (AAs) are directed to undergo intensive surveillance. However, the benefit derived from surveillance may be outweighed by the risk of death from non-colorectal cancer (CRC) causes, leading to uncertainty on how best to individualize follow-up. The aim of this study was to derive a risk prediction model and risk index that estimate and stratify the risk for non-CRC cancer mortality (NCM) subsequent to diagnosis and removal of AA. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans ≥40 years old who had colonoscopy for diagnostic or screening indications at 13 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers between 2002 and 2009 and had 1 or more AAs. The primary outcome was NCM using a fixed follow-up time period of 5 years. Logistic regression using the lasso technique was used to identify factors independently associated with NCM, and an index based on points from regression coefficients was constructed to estimate risk of 5-year NCM. We identified 2943 veterans with AA (mean age [standard deviation] 63 [8.6] years, 98% male, 74% white), with an overall 5-year mortality of 16.7%, which was nearly all due to NCM (16.6%). Age, comorbidity burden, specific comorbid conditions, and hospitalization within the preceding year were independently associated with NCM. The risk prediction model had a goodness of fit (calibration) P value of .41 and c-statistic (discrimination) of 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.76). On the basis of comparable 5-year risks of NCM, the scores comprised 3 risk categories: low (score of 0-1), intermediate (score of 2-4), and high (score of ≥5), in which NCM occurred in 6.5%, 14.1%, and 33.2%, respectively. We derived a risk prediction model that identifies veterans with advanced adenomas who are at high risk of NCM within 5 years, and who are thus unlikely to benefit from further surveillance.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND & AIMS
Patients with advanced colorectal adenomas (AAs) are directed to undergo intensive surveillance. However, the benefit derived from surveillance may be outweighed by the risk of death from non-colorectal cancer (CRC) causes, leading to uncertainty on how best to individualize follow-up. The aim of this study was to derive a risk prediction model and risk index that estimate and stratify the risk for non-CRC cancer mortality (NCM) subsequent to diagnosis and removal of AA.
METHODS
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans ≥40 years old who had colonoscopy for diagnostic or screening indications at 13 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers between 2002 and 2009 and had 1 or more AAs. The primary outcome was NCM using a fixed follow-up time period of 5 years. Logistic regression using the lasso technique was used to identify factors independently associated with NCM, and an index based on points from regression coefficients was constructed to estimate risk of 5-year NCM.
RESULTS
We identified 2943 veterans with AA (mean age [standard deviation] 63 [8.6] years, 98% male, 74% white), with an overall 5-year mortality of 16.7%, which was nearly all due to NCM (16.6%). Age, comorbidity burden, specific comorbid conditions, and hospitalization within the preceding year were independently associated with NCM. The risk prediction model had a goodness of fit (calibration) P value of .41 and c-statistic (discrimination) of 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.76). On the basis of comparable 5-year risks of NCM, the scores comprised 3 risk categories: low (score of 0-1), intermediate (score of 2-4), and high (score of ≥5), in which NCM occurred in 6.5%, 14.1%, and 33.2%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
We derived a risk prediction model that identifies veterans with advanced adenomas who are at high risk of NCM within 5 years, and who are thus unlikely to benefit from further surveillance.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33775897
pii: S1542-3565(21)00337-2
doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2021.03.027
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
847-854.e1Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.