Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses: a retrospective cohort study.
Epidemiology
Influenza, human
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Respiratory syncytial virus, human
Journal
BMC infectious diseases
ISSN: 1471-2334
Titre abrégé: BMC Infect Dis
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968551
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 Apr 2021
09 Apr 2021
Historique:
received:
17
09
2020
accepted:
31
03
2021
entrez:
10
4
2021
pubmed:
11
4
2021
medline:
14
4
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses. Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits. Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase. High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses.
METHODS
METHODS
Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33836685
doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06028-4
pii: 10.1186/s12879-021-06028-4
pmc: PMC8033554
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
335Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : T32 AI007044
Pays : United States
Investigateurs
Helen Y Chu
(HY)
Michael Boeckh
(M)
Janet A Englund
(JA)
Michael Famulare
(M)
Barry R Lutz
(BR)
Deborah A Nickerson
(DA)
Mark J Rieder
(MJ)
Lea M Starita
(LM)
Matthew Thompson
(M)
Jay Shendure
(J)
Trevor Bedford
(T)
Amanda Adler
(A)
Elisabeth Brandstetter
(E)
Jeris Bosua
(J)
Shari Cho
(S)
Chris D Frazar
(CD)
Peter D Han
(PD)
James Hadfield
(J)
Shichu Huang
(S)
Michael L Jackson
(ML)
Anahita Kiavand
(A)
Louise E Kimball
(LE)
Kirsten Lacombe
(K)
Jennifer Logue
(J)
Victoria Lyon
(V)
Kira L Newman
(KL)
Matthew Richardson
(M)
Thomas R Sibley
(TR)
Monica L Zigman Suchsland
(ML)
Caitlin Wolf
(C)
Références
Infect Dis Model. 2018 Mar 19;3:23-34
pubmed: 30839912
BMJ Open. 2020 Oct 7;10(10):e037295
pubmed: 33033018
Epidemics. 2020 Mar;30:100373
pubmed: 31635972
Epidemiol Infect. 2015 Mar;143(4):804-12
pubmed: 24901443
Science. 2020 May 22;368(6493):860-868
pubmed: 32291278
Nature. 2006 Jul 27;442(7101):448-52
pubmed: 16642006
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Apr 11;103(15):5935-40
pubmed: 16585506
J Infect Dis. 2010 May 15;201(10):1509-16
pubmed: 20377412
Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 Jul;14(7):1024-30
pubmed: 18598620
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2016 May 25;3(3):ofw113
pubmed: 27800520
PLoS One. 2010 May 05;5(5):e10425
pubmed: 20463960
N Engl J Med. 2009 Aug 13;361(7):680-9
pubmed: 19564631
J Infect Dis. 2017 Mar 1;215(5):732-739
pubmed: 28031259
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Jul 2;116(27):13174-13181
pubmed: 31209042
Emerg Infect Dis. 2018 Nov;24(11):2071-2073
pubmed: 30334723
Lancet. 1968 Dec 28;2(7583):1384-6
pubmed: 4177941
BMC Infect Dis. 2018 Jan 10;18(1):29
pubmed: 29321005
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2017 Sep 27;4(3):ofx166
pubmed: 29497629
Nature. 2008 Apr 10;452(7188):750-4
pubmed: 18401408
PLoS Pathog. 2015 Jan 08;11(1):e1004591
pubmed: 25569275
Clin Microbiol Infect. 2013 Jul;19(7):E322-7
pubmed: 23490188
Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Nov;12(11):1671-81
pubmed: 17283616
Br Med J. 1967 Sep 23;3(5568):767-9
pubmed: 6043624
Wellcome Open Res. 2020 Apr 2;5:59
pubmed: 32529040
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Mar 25;105(12):4639-44
pubmed: 18332436
Lancet Infect Dis. 2009 May;9(5):291-300
pubmed: 19393959