Network dynamic model of epidemic transmission introducing a heterogeneous control factor.
COVID-19
heterogeneous
modeling
network dynamics
Journal
Journal of medical virology
ISSN: 1096-9071
Titre abrégé: J Med Virol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7705876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Dec 2021
Dec 2021
Historique:
revised:
05
04
2021
received:
13
10
2020
accepted:
12
04
2021
pubmed:
15
4
2021
medline:
28
10
2021
entrez:
14
4
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The COVID-19 epidemic is not only a medical issue but also a sophisticated social problem. We propose a network dynamics model of epidemic transmission introducing a heterogeneous control factor. The proposed model applied the classical susceptible- exposed-infectious-recovered model to the network based on effective distance and was modified by introducing a heterogeneous control factor with temporal and spatial characteristics. International aviation data were approximately used to estimate the flux fraction matrix, and the effective distance was calculated. Through parameter estimation and simulation, the theoretical values of the modified model fit well with practical values. By adjusting the parameters and observing the change of the results, we found that the modified model is more in line with the actual needs and has higher credibility in the comprehensive analysis. The assessment shows that the number of confirmed cases worldwide will reach about 20 million optimistically. In severe cases, the peak value will exceed 80 million, and the late stage of the epidemic shows a long tail shape, lasting more than one and a half years. The effective way to control the global epidemic is to strengthen international cooperation and to impose international travel restrictions and other measures.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33851729
doi: 10.1002/jmv.27025
pmc: PMC8250401
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
6496-6505Informations de copyright
© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.
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