Associations between floods and bacillary dysentery cases in main urban areas of Chongqing, China, 2005-2016: a retrospective study.
Attributable risk
Bacillary dysentery
Distributed lag non-linear model
Floods
Relative risk
Journal
Environmental health and preventive medicine
ISSN: 1347-4715
Titre abrégé: Environ Health Prev Med
Pays: Japan
ID NLM: 9609642
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
19 Apr 2021
19 Apr 2021
Historique:
received:
04
01
2021
accepted:
05
04
2021
entrez:
20
4
2021
pubmed:
21
4
2021
medline:
24
4
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Understanding the association between floods and bacillary dysentery (BD) incidence is necessary for us to assess the health risk of extreme weather events. This study aims at exploring the association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases in main urban areas of Chongqing between 2005 and 2016 as well as evaluating the attributable risk from floods. The association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases was evaluated by using distributed lag non-linear model, controlling for meteorological factors, long-term trend, seasonality, and day of week. The fraction and number of bacillary dysentery cases attributable to floods was calculated. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the association across age, gender, and occupation. After controlling the impact of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, long-term trend, and seasonality, a significant lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery cases was found at 0-day, 3-day, and 4-day lag, and the cumulative relative risk (CRR) over a 7-lag day period was 1.393 (95%CI 1.216-1.596). Male had higher risk than female. People under 5 years old and people aged 15-64 years old had significantly higher risk. Students, workers, and children had significantly higher risk. During the study period, based on 7-lag days, the attributable fraction of bacillary dysentery cases due to floods was 1.10% and the attributable number was 497 persons. This study confirms that floods can increase the risk of bacillary dysentery incidence in main urban areas of Chongqing within an accurate time scale, the risk of bacillary dysentery caused by floods is still serious. The key population includes male, people under 5 years old, students, workers, and children. Considering the lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery, the government and public health emergency departments should advance to the emergency health response in order to minimize the potential risk of floods on public.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Understanding the association between floods and bacillary dysentery (BD) incidence is necessary for us to assess the health risk of extreme weather events. This study aims at exploring the association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases in main urban areas of Chongqing between 2005 and 2016 as well as evaluating the attributable risk from floods.
METHODS
METHODS
The association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases was evaluated by using distributed lag non-linear model, controlling for meteorological factors, long-term trend, seasonality, and day of week. The fraction and number of bacillary dysentery cases attributable to floods was calculated. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the association across age, gender, and occupation.
RESULTS
RESULTS
After controlling the impact of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, long-term trend, and seasonality, a significant lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery cases was found at 0-day, 3-day, and 4-day lag, and the cumulative relative risk (CRR) over a 7-lag day period was 1.393 (95%CI 1.216-1.596). Male had higher risk than female. People under 5 years old and people aged 15-64 years old had significantly higher risk. Students, workers, and children had significantly higher risk. During the study period, based on 7-lag days, the attributable fraction of bacillary dysentery cases due to floods was 1.10% and the attributable number was 497 persons.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
This study confirms that floods can increase the risk of bacillary dysentery incidence in main urban areas of Chongqing within an accurate time scale, the risk of bacillary dysentery caused by floods is still serious. The key population includes male, people under 5 years old, students, workers, and children. Considering the lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery, the government and public health emergency departments should advance to the emergency health response in order to minimize the potential risk of floods on public.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33874880
doi: 10.1186/s12199-021-00971-z
pii: 10.1186/s12199-021-00971-z
pmc: PMC8056597
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
49Subventions
Organisme : The Western Area Health Initiative (WAHI)
ID : WPCHN1409378
Organisme : Chongqing Municipal Education Commission
ID : KJ1600227
Organisme : Chongqing Social Science Planning Project
ID : 2019YBGL057
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