Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns.
COVID-19
epidemiology
infectious diseases
Journal
BMJ open
ISSN: 2044-6055
Titre abrégé: BMJ Open
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101552874
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
22 04 2021
22 04 2021
Historique:
entrez:
23
4
2021
pubmed:
24
4
2021
medline:
15
5
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
To measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern. This is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number The UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis. Reduction in real-time reproduction number Nationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, The relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33888533
pii: bmjopen-2021-050346
doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346
pmc: PMC8068949
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e050346Subventions
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC_19012
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_UU_00002/11
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/V038109/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Informations de copyright
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests: None declared.
Références
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