Calculation of Dynamic Viscosity in Concentrated Cementitious Suspensions: Probabilistic Approximation and Bayesian Analysis.

We present a new focus for the Krieger-Dougherty equation from a probabilistic point of view. This equation allows the calculation of dynamic viscosity in suspensions of various types, like cement paste and self-compacting mortar/concrete. The physical meaning of the parameters that intervene in the equation (maximum packing fraction of particles and intrinsic viscosity), together with the random nature associated with these systems, make the application of the Bayesian analysis desirable. This analysis permits the transformation of parametric-deterministic models into parametric-probabilistic models, which improves and enriches their results. The initial limitations of the Bayesian methods, due to their complexity, have been overcome by numerical methods (Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Gibbs Sampling) and the development of specific software (OpenBUGS). Here we use it to compute the probability density functions that intervene in the Krieger-Dougherty equation applied to the calculation of viscosity in several cement pastes, self-compacting mortars, and self-compacting concretes. The dynamic viscosity calculations made with the Bayesian distributions are significantly better than those made with the theoretical values.