Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?
Journal
HPB : the official journal of the International Hepato Pancreato Biliary Association
ISSN: 1477-2574
Titre abrégé: HPB (Oxford)
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100900921
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 2021
11 2021
Historique:
received:
24
01
2021
revised:
27
03
2021
accepted:
06
04
2021
pubmed:
13
5
2021
medline:
27
1
2022
entrez:
12
5
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning. This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office. A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n = 102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p < 0.001), followed by Autumn (n = 102 267), then Spring (n = 97 807) and finally Winter (n = 94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions. Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning.
METHODS
This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office.
RESULTS
A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n = 102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p < 0.001), followed by Autumn (n = 102 267), then Spring (n = 97 807) and finally Winter (n = 94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions.
CONCLUSION
Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33975800
pii: S1365-182X(21)00109-X
doi: 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1732-1743Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.