Impact of public health interventions to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread assessed by an evidence-educated Delphi panel and tailored SEIR model.
CoViD-19
Delphi-panel
Germany
Model
Pandemic
SARS-CoV-2
Journal
Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health
ISSN: 2198-1833
Titre abrégé: Z Gesundh Wiss
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 9425271
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2023
2023
Historique:
received:
19
11
2020
accepted:
14
04
2021
pubmed:
25
5
2021
medline:
25
5
2021
entrez:
24
5
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed). We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R Efficacy and compliance estimates for the three most effective NPIs were as follows: test and isolate 49% (efficacy)/78% (compliance), keeping distance 42%/74%, personal protection masks (cloth masks or other face masks) 33%/79%. Applying all NPI effectiveness estimates to the SEIR model resulted in a valid replication of reported occurrence of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A combination of four NPIs at consented compliance rates might curb the CoViD-19 pandemic. Employing an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach can support SARS-CoV-2 modelling. Future curbing scenarios require a combination of NPIs. A Delphi-panel-based NPI assessment and modelling might support public health policy decision making by informing sequence and number of needed public health measures. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34026423
doi: 10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2
pii: 1566
pmc: PMC8127459
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
539-552Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2021.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflict of interestNone declared.
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