Modelling the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: Assessing the usefulness of protective measures to reduce the pandemic at population level.
COVID-19
Pandemic control measures
Pandemic management
Population dynamics P system model
Vaccination
Journal
The Science of the total environment
ISSN: 1879-1026
Titre abrégé: Sci Total Environ
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 0330500
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Oct 2021
01 Oct 2021
Historique:
received:
02
03
2021
revised:
28
04
2021
accepted:
12
05
2021
pubmed:
31
5
2021
medline:
23
7
2021
entrez:
30
5
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
A new bioinspired computational model was developed for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic using the available epidemiological information, high-resolution population density data, travel patterns, and the average number of contacts between people. The effectiveness of control measures such as contact reduction measures, closure of communities (lockdown), protective measures (social distancing, face mask wearing, and hand hygiene), and vaccination were modelled to examine possibilities for control of the disease under several protective vaccination levels in the population. Lockdown and contact reduction measures only delay the spread of the virus in the population because it resumes its previous dynamics as soon as the restrictions are lifted. Nevertheless, these measures are probably useful to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed in the short term. Our model predicted that 56% of the Spanish population would have been infected and subsequently recovered over a 130 day period if no protective measures were taken but this percentage would have been only 34% if protective measures had been put in place. Moreover, this percentage would have been further reduced to 41.7, 27.7, and 13.3% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated, respectively. Finally, this percentage would have been even lower at 25.5, 12.1 and 7.9% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated in combination with the application of protective measures, respectively. Therefore, a combination of protective measures and vaccination would be highly efficacious in decreasing not only the number of those who become infected and subsequently recover, but also the number of people who die from infection, which falls from 0.41% of the population over a 130 day period without protective measures to 0.15, 0.08 and 0.06% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated in combination with protective measures at the same time, respectively.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34052482
pii: S0048-9697(21)02887-4
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147816
pmc: PMC8137349
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
147816Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interest.
Références
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jul 20;727:138394
pubmed: 32334207
Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;97:96-101
pubmed: 32497812
EClinicalMedicine. 2020 Apr 05;21:100331
pubmed: 32292899
Science. 2020 May 22;368(6493):860-868
pubmed: 32291278
Sci Bull (Beijing). 2020 Aug 15;65(15):1225-1227
pubmed: 32363046
Sci Adv. 2020 Aug 14;6(33):eabc1202
pubmed: 32851189
Lancet Digit Health. 2020 Oct;2(10):e498-e499
pubmed: 32838252
J Infect. 2020 Aug;81(2):260-265
pubmed: 32461062
Nat Med. 2020 May;26(5):672-675
pubmed: 32296168
Ann Intern Med. 2020 May 05;172(9):577-582
pubmed: 32150748
Lancet. 2021 Jan 9;397(10269):72-74
pubmed: 33306990
N Engl J Med. 2020 Dec 31;383(27):2603-2615
pubmed: 33301246
PLoS One. 2020 Dec 23;15(12):e0242398
pubmed: 33362283
Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;26(7):1470-1477
pubmed: 32255761
J Indian Inst Sci. 2020;100(4):793-807
pubmed: 33144763
Nat Hum Behav. 2020 Sep;4(9):964-971
pubmed: 32759985
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Sep 25;17(19):
pubmed: 32992809
BMJ Open. 2020 Aug 5;10(8):e039856
pubmed: 32759252
PLoS One. 2013 Apr 09;8(4):e60698
pubmed: 23593284
J Infect. 2020 Jun;80(6):e39-e40
pubmed: 32277970
Am J Epidemiol. 2004 Sep 15;160(6):509-16
pubmed: 15353409
Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Apr;8(4):e488-e496
pubmed: 32119825
N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr 30;382(18):1708-1720
pubmed: 32109013
Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(9):
pubmed: 32156327
Lancet. 2020 Mar 21;395(10228):931-934
pubmed: 32164834
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;20(8):911-919
pubmed: 32353347
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;20(6):656-657
pubmed: 32199493
Emerg Microbes Infect. 2020 Dec;9(1):827-829
pubmed: 32338150
Vaccines (Basel). 2021 Apr 14;9(4):
pubmed: 33920027
Sensors (Basel). 2020 Sep 02;20(17):
pubmed: 32887338
Science. 2020 May 1;368(6490):489-493
pubmed: 32179701
Science. 2020 Nov 27;370(6520):1015
pubmed: 33243863
N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 5;382(10):929-936
pubmed: 32004427
J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 13;27(2):
pubmed: 32052846
Lancet Infect Dis. 2021 Apr;21(4):482-492
pubmed: 33357518
Nat Med. 2021 Jan;27(1):94-105
pubmed: 33097835
Sci Bull (Beijing). 2020 Nov 30;65(22):1884-1887
pubmed: 32837765
PLoS One. 2011;6(5):e20248
pubmed: 21629647
Lancet Infect Dis. 2021 Feb;21(2):193-202
pubmed: 33729915
Sci Rep. 2019 Jul 10;9(1):9959
pubmed: 31292473
Theor Biol Med Model. 2007 Jun 04;4:20
pubmed: 17547753
Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):507-513
pubmed: 32007143
Rev Clin Esp (Barc). 2020 Nov;220(8):480-494
pubmed: 32762922
Sci Bull (Beijing). 2021 Feb 15;66(3):229-232
pubmed: 33078079
Animals (Basel). 2020 May 24;10(5):
pubmed: 32456342
PLoS One. 2020 Sep 4;15(9):e0238559
pubmed: 32886696
Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Nov 1;178(9):1505-12
pubmed: 24043437
Chin Med J (Engl). 2020 May 5;133(9):1025-1031
pubmed: 32044814