Estimating epidemiologic dynamics from cross-sectional viral load distributions.
Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Titre abrégé: Science
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0404511
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
16 07 2021
16 07 2021
Historique:
received:
13
02
2021
accepted:
28
05
2021
pubmed:
5
6
2021
medline:
9
9
2021
entrez:
4
6
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Estimating an epidemic's trajectory is crucial for developing public health responses to infectious diseases, but case data used for such estimation are confounded by variable testing practices. We show that the population distribution of viral loads observed under random or symptom-based surveillance-in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained from reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction testing-changes during an epidemic. Thus, Ct values from even limited numbers of random samples can provide improved estimates of an epidemic's trajectory. Combining data from multiple such samples improves the precision and robustness of this estimation. We apply our methods to Ct values from surveillance conducted during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic in a variety of settings and offer alternative approaches for real-time estimates of epidemic trajectories for outbreak management and response.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34083451
pii: science.abh0635
doi: 10.1126/science.abh0635
pmc: PMC8527857
mid: NIHMS1741625
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : ACL HHS
ID : U01IP001121
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : DP5 OD028145
Pays : United States
Organisme : NCIRD CDC HHS
ID : U01 IP001121
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : U54 GM088558
Pays : United States
Organisme : NCI NIH HHS
ID : U01 CA261277
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : UpdateOf
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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