A Prediction Model Based on Noninvasive Indicators to Predict the 8-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.
Adult
Blood Glucose
Cohort Studies
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
/ epidemiology
Female
Forecasting
/ methods
Glycated Hemoglobin
Humans
Incidence
Japan
/ epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Nomograms
Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
/ complications
ROC Curve
Regression Analysis
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Smoking
Waist Circumference
Journal
BioMed research international
ISSN: 2314-6141
Titre abrégé: Biomed Res Int
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101600173
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
received:
30
01
2021
accepted:
08
05
2021
entrez:
7
6
2021
pubmed:
8
6
2021
medline:
30
9
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The prevention of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its associated complications has become a major priority of global public health. In addition, there is growing evidence that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of diabetes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram based on independent predictors to better assess the 8-year risk of T2D in Japanese patients with NAFLD. This is a historical cohort study from a collection of databases that included 2741 Japanese participants with NAFLD without T2D at baseline. All participants were randomized to a training cohort ( We developed a simple nomogram that predicts the risk of T2D for Japanese patients with NAFLD by using the parameters of smoking status, waist circumference, hemoglobin A1c, and fasting blood glucose. For the prediction model, the C-index of training cohort and validation cohort was 0.839 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.804-0.874) and 0.822 (95% CI, 0.777-0.868), respectively. The pooled area under the ROC of 8-year T2D risk in the training cohort and validation cohort was 0.811 and 0.805, respectively. The calibration curve indicated a good agreement between the probability predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. We developed and validated a nomogram for the 8-year risk of incident T2D among Japanese patients with NAFLD. Our nomogram can effectively predict the 8-year incidence of T2D in Japanese patients with NAFLD and helps to identify people at high risk of T2D early, thus contributing to effective prevention programs for T2D.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
The prevention of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its associated complications has become a major priority of global public health. In addition, there is growing evidence that nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of diabetes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram based on independent predictors to better assess the 8-year risk of T2D in Japanese patients with NAFLD.
METHODS
METHODS
This is a historical cohort study from a collection of databases that included 2741 Japanese participants with NAFLD without T2D at baseline. All participants were randomized to a training cohort (
RESULTS
RESULTS
We developed a simple nomogram that predicts the risk of T2D for Japanese patients with NAFLD by using the parameters of smoking status, waist circumference, hemoglobin A1c, and fasting blood glucose. For the prediction model, the C-index of training cohort and validation cohort was 0.839 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.804-0.874) and 0.822 (95% CI, 0.777-0.868), respectively. The pooled area under the ROC of 8-year T2D risk in the training cohort and validation cohort was 0.811 and 0.805, respectively. The calibration curve indicated a good agreement between the probability predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
We developed and validated a nomogram for the 8-year risk of incident T2D among Japanese patients with NAFLD. Our nomogram can effectively predict the 8-year incidence of T2D in Japanese patients with NAFLD and helps to identify people at high risk of T2D early, thus contributing to effective prevention programs for T2D.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34095297
doi: 10.1155/2021/5527460
pmc: PMC8140840
doi:
Substances chimiques
Blood Glucose
0
Glycated Hemoglobin A
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
5527460Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 Xintian Cai et al.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
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