Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.


Journal

Science translational medicine
ISSN: 1946-6242
Titre abrégé: Sci Transl Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101505086

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
14 07 2021
Historique:
received: 05 01 2021
revised: 14 04 2021
accepted: 16 06 2021
pubmed: 24 6 2021
medline: 20 7 2021
entrez: 23 6 2021
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (

Identifiants

pubmed: 34158411
pii: scitranslmed.abg4262
doi: 10.1126/scitranslmed.abg4262
pmc: PMC8432953
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Subventions

Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC_19012
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/V038109/1
Pays : United Kingdom

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).

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Auteurs

Edward S Knock (ES)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.

Lilith K Whittles (LK)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.
Modelling and Economics Unit, National Infection Service, Public Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK.

John A Lees (JA)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Pablo N Perez-Guzman (PN)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Robert Verity (R)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Richard G FitzJohn (RG)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Katy A M Gaythorpe (KAM)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Natsuko Imai (N)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Wes Hinsley (W)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Lucy C Okell (LC)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Alicia Rosello (A)

Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.

Nikolas Kantas (N)

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, UK.

Caroline E Walters (CE)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Sangeeta Bhatia (S)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Oliver J Watson (OJ)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Charlie Whittaker (C)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Lorenzo Cattarino (L)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Adhiratha Boonyasiri (A)

Department of Infectious Disease, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Bimandra A Djaafara (BA)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Keith Fraser (K)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Han Fu (H)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Haowei Wang (H)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Xiaoyue Xi (X)

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, UK.

Christl A Donnelly (CA)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3LB, UK.
NIHR HPRU in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Liverpool, UK.

Elita Jauneikaite (E)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Daniel J Laydon (DJ)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Peter J White (PJ)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.
Modelling and Economics Unit, National Infection Service, Public Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK.

Azra C Ghani (AC)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

Neil M Ferguson (NM)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. m.baguelin@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.

Anne Cori (A)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.

Marc Baguelin (M)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. m.baguelin@imperial.ac.uk neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.
National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.

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