Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics.
Africa
COVID-19 modeling
Human Development Index
forecast
meteorology
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
13 07 2021
13 07 2021
Historique:
entrez:
30
6
2021
pubmed:
1
7
2021
medline:
9
7
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the Human Development Index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One-week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34187879
pii: 2026664118
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2026664118
pmc: PMC8285917
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI145057
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : 1R01AI145057
Pays : United States
Commentaires et corrections
Type : UpdateOf
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no competing interest.
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