On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models.
CMIP6 climate models
North Atlantic circulation
abrupt climate changes
climatic projections
subpolar gyre
Journal
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
ISSN: 1749-6632
Titre abrégé: Ann N Y Acad Sci
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7506858
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 2021
11 2021
Historique:
revised:
07
06
2021
received:
01
02
2021
accepted:
14
06
2021
pubmed:
3
7
2021
medline:
15
12
2021
entrez:
2
7
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
CMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics-most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions-and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
187-201Subventions
Organisme : European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program
Organisme : European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
Informations de copyright
© 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Références
Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. 2012. Greenland climate change: from the past to the future. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.-Clim. Change 3: 427-449.
Steffensen, J.P. et al. 2008. High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years. Science 321: 680-684.
Rahmstorf, S. 2002. Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years. Nature 419: 207-214.
Born, A., T.F. Stocker, C.C. Raible & A. Levermann. 2013. Is the Atlantic subpolar gyre bistable in comprehensive coupled climate models? Clim. Dyn. 40: 2993-3007.
Buckley, M.W. & J. Marshall. 2016. Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: a review. Rev. Geophys. 54: 5-63.
IPCC. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. T.F. Stocker et al., Eds.: 1-30. Cambridge University Press; 2013.
Menary, M.B. & R.A. Wood. 2018. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn. 50: 3063-3080.
Caesar, L., S. Rahmstorf, A. Robinson, et al. 2018. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature 556: 191-196.
Caesar, L., G.D. McCarthy, D.J.R. Thornalley, et al. 2021. Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium. Nat. Geosci. 14: 118-120.
Rahmstorf, S. et al. 2015. Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nat. Clim. Change 5: 475-480.
Thornalley, D.J.R. et al. 2018. Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature 556: 227-230.
Collins, M. et al. 2019. IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Chapter 6: Extremes, abrupt changes and managing risks.
Worthington, E.L. et al. 2021. A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shows no decline. Ocean Sci. 17: 285-299.
Lobelle, D., C. Beaulieu, V. Livina, et al. 2020. Detectability of an AMOC decline in current and projected climate changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47: e2020GL089974.
Menary, M.B. et al. 2020. Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47: e2020GL088166.
Weijer, W., W. Cheng, O.A. Garuba, et al. 2020. CMIP6 models predict significant 21st century decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47: e2019GL086075.
Sgubin, G., D. Swingedouw, S. Drijfhout, et al. 2017. Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models. Nat. Commun. 8: 14375.
Born, A., T.F. Stocker & A.B. Sando. 2016. Transport of salt and freshwater in the Atlantic subpolar gyre. Ocean Dyn. 66: 1051-1064.
Born, A. & T.F. Stocker. 2014. Two stable equilibria of the Atlantic subpolar gyre. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 44: 246-264.
Swingedouw, D. et al. 2020. Early warning from space for a few key tipping points in physical, biological, and social-ecological systems. Surv. Geophys. 41: 1237-1284.
Li, C. & A. Born. 2019. Coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean dynamics in Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Quat. Sci. Rev. 203: 1-20.
Sgubin, G., D. Swingedouw, I. García de Cortázar-Atauri, et al. 2019. The impact of possible decadal-scale cold waves on viticulture over Europe in a context of global warming. Agronomy 9: 397.
Sutton, R.T. 2018. ESD ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Earth Syst. Dyn. 9: 1155-1158.
Good, S.A., M.J. Martin & N.A. Rayner. 2013. EN4: quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 118: 6704-6716.
Knutti, R., D. Masson & A. Gettelman. 2013. Climate model genealogy: generation CMIP5 and how we got there. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40: 1194-1199.
Smith, D.M. et al. 2020. North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature 583: 796-800.
Jackson, L.C. et al. 2015. Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM. Clim. Dyn. 45: 3299-3316.
Duchez, A. et al. 2016. Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26N. Clim. Dyn. 46: 3351-3370.
Mecking, J.V., S.S. Drijfhout, J.J.-M. Hirschi & A.T. Blaker. 2019. Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave. Environ. Res. Lett. 14: 114035.
Borchert, L.F. et al. 2019. Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46: 14,042-14,051.
Dunstone, N.J., D.M. Smith & R. Eade. 2011. Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 6: 38. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047949.
Rind, D. et al. 2018. Multicentury instability of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation in rapid warming simulations with GISS ModelE2. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123: 6331-6355.
Oltmanns, M., Karstensen, J. & J. Fischer. 2018. Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers. Nat. Clim. Change 8: 300-304.
Swingedouw, D. et al. 2013. Decadal fingerprints of freshwater discharge around Greenland in a multi-model ensemble. Clim. Dyn. 41: 695-720.
Wood, R.A., A.B. Keen, J.F.B. Mitchell & J.M. Gregory. 1999. Changing spatial structure of the thermohaline circulation in response to atmospheric CO2 forcing in a climate model. Nature 399: 572-575.
Swingedouw, D., P. Braconnot & O. Marti. 2006. Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the melting from northern glaciers in climate change experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025765.
Swingedouw, D., P. Braconnot, P. Delecluse, et al. 2007. Quantifying the AMOC feedbacks during a 2×CO2 stabilization experiment with land-ice melting. Clim. Dyn. 29: 521-534.
Swingedouw, D., P. Braconnot, P. Delecluse, et al. 2007. The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM. Clim. Dyn. 28: 291-305.
Le Corre, M., J. Gula & A.-M. Tréguier. 2020. Barotropic vorticity balance of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in an eddy-resolving model. Ocean Sci. 16: 451-468.
Hall, A., P. Cox, C. Huntingford & S. Klein. 2019. Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 9: 269-278.
Lenton, T.M. et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105: 1786-1793.
Li, F. et al. 2019. Local and downstream relationships between Labrador Sea water volume and North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability. J. Clim. 32: 3883-3898.
Lozier, M.S. et al. 2019. A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic. Science 363: 516-521.
Menary, M.B., L.C. Jackson & M.S. Lozier. 2020. Reconciling the relationship between the AMOC and Labrador Sea in OSNAP observations and climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47: e2020GL089793.
Boer, G.J. et al. 2016. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9: 3751-3777.
Kleppin, H., M. Jochum, B. Otto-Bliesner, et al. 2015. Stochastic atmospheric forcing as a cause of Greenland climate transitions. J. Clim. 28: 7741-7763.
Drijfhout, S., E. Gleeson, H.A. Dijkstra & V. Livina. 2013. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 110: 19713-19718.
Bakker, P. et al. 2016. Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting: AMOC projections for warming and GIS melt. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43: 12,252-12,260.
Koul, V. et al. 2020. Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index. Sci. Rep. 10: 1005.
Hirschi, J.J.-M. et al. 2020. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in high-resolution models. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 125: e2019JC015522.