[Simulation of Lanzhou urban land expansion based on multi-agent model].

Using the four periods of land use data and socio-economic statistics of Lanzhou City in 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2018, we examined the evolution characteristics and driving forces of urban land use in Lanzhou, with expansion intensity index, Logistic regression, and principal component analysis method. Based on the multi-agent model, the expansion of urban land use in Lanzhou under multiple scenarios in 2025 was simulated using Netlogo software. The results showed that the intensity and scale of urban land expansion in Lanzhou City from 1995 to 2018 showed an increasing trend, with a total of 307 km 利用1995、2005、2015、2018年4期兰州市土地利用数据和社会经济统计数据,运用扩展强度指数、Logistic回归、主成分分析等方法揭示兰州市城镇用地演变特征及驱动力,基于多智能体模型用Netlogo软件实现了2025年多情景下兰州市城镇用地扩展模拟。结果表明: 1995—2018年,兰州市城镇用地扩展强度和规模均呈增长趋势,侵占耕地和水域面积共307 km