Pattern and determinants of COVID-19 infection and mortality across countries: An ecological study.

COVID-19 COVID-19 incidence COVID-19 mortality COVID-19 transmissibility Ecological factors Exponential model Linear model Social mobility

Journal

Heliyon
ISSN: 2405-8440
Titre abrégé: Heliyon
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101672560

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Jul 2021
Historique:
received: 21 03 2021
revised: 30 03 2021
accepted: 05 07 2021
pubmed: 14 7 2021
medline: 14 7 2021
entrez: 13 7 2021
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

This work aimed to identify the mathematical model and ecological determinants of COVID-19 infection and mortality across different countries during the first six months of the pandemic. In this study, authors used the online available data sources of randomly selected 18 countries to figure out potential determinants of COVID-19 transmissibility and mortality. The studied variables were environmental factors (daily average temperature, daily humidity), socioeconomic attributes (population age structure, count and density, human development index, per capita income (PCI), gross domestic product, internet coverage) mobility trends and chronic diseases. Researchers used the linear and exponential time series analysis, and further utilized multivariate techniques to explain the variance in the monthly increase in cases and deaths. In the first two months, the R Controlling of COVID-19 pandemic is based mainly on controlling social mobility. Role of environmental determinants like temperature and humidity was well noticed on disease fatality and transmissibility. Socio-demographic determinants of COVID-19 spread and fatality included modifiable risk factors like PCI and non-modifiable risk factors like ageing.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
This work aimed to identify the mathematical model and ecological determinants of COVID-19 infection and mortality across different countries during the first six months of the pandemic.
METHODOLOGY METHODS
In this study, authors used the online available data sources of randomly selected 18 countries to figure out potential determinants of COVID-19 transmissibility and mortality. The studied variables were environmental factors (daily average temperature, daily humidity), socioeconomic attributes (population age structure, count and density, human development index, per capita income (PCI), gross domestic product, internet coverage) mobility trends and chronic diseases. Researchers used the linear and exponential time series analysis, and further utilized multivariate techniques to explain the variance in the monthly increase in cases and deaths.
RESULTS RESULTS
In the first two months, the R
CONCLUSION CONCLUSIONS
Controlling of COVID-19 pandemic is based mainly on controlling social mobility. Role of environmental determinants like temperature and humidity was well noticed on disease fatality and transmissibility. Socio-demographic determinants of COVID-19 spread and fatality included modifiable risk factors like PCI and non-modifiable risk factors like ageing.

Identifiants

pubmed: 34254048
doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07504
pii: S2405-8440(21)01607-8
pmc: PMC8264269
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

e07504

Informations de copyright

© 2021 The Authors.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Auteurs

Noha Asem (N)

Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Egypt.
Ministry of Health and Population, Egypt.

Ahmed Ramadan (A)

Department of Data Science and Medical Information, DataClin CRO, Egypt.
Department of Applied Statistics, Faculty of Postgraduate Studies for Statistical Research, Cairo University, Egypt.

Mohamed Hassany (M)

Ministry of Health and Population, Egypt.

Ramy Mohamed Ghazy (RM)

Tropical Health Department, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt.

Mohamed Abdallah (M)

Medical Research Division, National Research Center, Giza, Egypt.

Mohamed Ibrahim (M)

Department of Medical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University, Egypt.

Eman M Gamal (EM)

Ministry of Health and Population, Egypt.

Shaimaa Hassan (S)

Ministry of Health and Population, Egypt.

Nehal Kamal (N)

Department of Research, Children's Cancer Hospital (CCHE) 57357, Egypt.

Hala Zaid (H)

Ministry of Health and Population, Egypt.

Classifications MeSH