Predicting critical state after COVID-19 diagnosis: model development using a large US electronic health record dataset.
Journal
NPJ digital medicine
ISSN: 2398-6352
Titre abrégé: NPJ Digit Med
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101731738
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
20 Jul 2021
20 Jul 2021
Historique:
received:
31
08
2020
accepted:
21
06
2021
entrez:
21
7
2021
pubmed:
22
7
2021
medline:
22
7
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
As the COVID-19 pandemic is challenging healthcare systems worldwide, early identification of patients with a high risk of complication is crucial. We present a prognostic model predicting critical state within 28 days following COVID-19 diagnosis trained on data from US electronic health records (IBM Explorys), including demographics, comorbidities, symptoms, and hospitalization. Out of 15753 COVID-19 patients, 2050 went into critical state or deceased. Non-random train-test splits by time were repeated 100 times and led to a ROC AUC of 0.861 [0.838, 0.883] and a precision-recall AUC of 0.434 [0.414, 0.485] (median and interquartile range). The interpretability analysis confirmed evidence on major risk factors (e.g., older age, higher BMI, male gender, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease) in an efficient way compared to clinical studies, demonstrating the model validity. Such personalized predictions could enable fine-graded risk stratification for optimized care management.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34285316
doi: 10.1038/s41746-021-00482-9
pii: 10.1038/s41746-021-00482-9
pmc: PMC8292360
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
113Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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