Emergency teleradiological activity is an epidemiological estimator and predictor of the covid-19 pandemic in mainland France.
Coronavirus infections
Forecasting
Public health
Teleradiology
Journal
Insights into imaging
ISSN: 1869-4101
Titre abrégé: Insights Imaging
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101532453
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
22 Jul 2021
22 Jul 2021
Historique:
received:
18
03
2021
accepted:
11
06
2021
entrez:
22
7
2021
pubmed:
23
7
2021
medline:
23
7
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for real-time monitoring of diseases evolution to rapidly adapt restrictive measures. This prospective multicentric study aimed at investigating radiological markers of COVID-19-related emergency activity as global estimators of pandemic evolution in France. We incorporated two sources of data from March to November 2020: an open-source epidemiological dataset, collecting daily hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions, hospital deaths and discharges, and a teleradiology dataset corresponding to the weekly number of CT-scans performed in 65 emergency centres and interpreted remotely. CT-scans specifically requested for COVID-19 suspicion were monitored. Teleradiological and epidemiological time series were aligned. Their relationships were estimated through a cross-correlation function, and their extremes and breakpoints were compared. Dynamic linear models were trained to forecast the weekly hospitalisations based on teleradiological activity predictors. A total of 100,018 CT-scans were included over 36 weeks, and 19,133 (19%) performed within the COVID-19 workflow. Concomitantly, 227,677 hospitalisations were reported. Teleradiological and epidemiological time series were almost perfectly superimposed (cross-correlation coefficients at lag 0: 0.90-0.92). Maximal number of COVID-19 CT-scans was reached the week of 2020-03-23 (1 086 CT-scans), 1 week before the highest hospitalisations (23,542 patients). The best valid forecasting model combined the number of COVID-19 CT-scans and the number of hospitalisations during the prior two weeks and provided the lowest mean absolute percentage (5.09%, testing period: 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-29). Monitoring COVID-19 CT-scan activity in emergencies accurately and instantly predicts hospitalisations and helps adjust medical resources, paving the way for complementary public health indicators.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for real-time monitoring of diseases evolution to rapidly adapt restrictive measures. This prospective multicentric study aimed at investigating radiological markers of COVID-19-related emergency activity as global estimators of pandemic evolution in France. We incorporated two sources of data from March to November 2020: an open-source epidemiological dataset, collecting daily hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions, hospital deaths and discharges, and a teleradiology dataset corresponding to the weekly number of CT-scans performed in 65 emergency centres and interpreted remotely. CT-scans specifically requested for COVID-19 suspicion were monitored. Teleradiological and epidemiological time series were aligned. Their relationships were estimated through a cross-correlation function, and their extremes and breakpoints were compared. Dynamic linear models were trained to forecast the weekly hospitalisations based on teleradiological activity predictors.
RESULTS
RESULTS
A total of 100,018 CT-scans were included over 36 weeks, and 19,133 (19%) performed within the COVID-19 workflow. Concomitantly, 227,677 hospitalisations were reported. Teleradiological and epidemiological time series were almost perfectly superimposed (cross-correlation coefficients at lag 0: 0.90-0.92). Maximal number of COVID-19 CT-scans was reached the week of 2020-03-23 (1 086 CT-scans), 1 week before the highest hospitalisations (23,542 patients). The best valid forecasting model combined the number of COVID-19 CT-scans and the number of hospitalisations during the prior two weeks and provided the lowest mean absolute percentage (5.09%, testing period: 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-29).
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Monitoring COVID-19 CT-scan activity in emergencies accurately and instantly predicts hospitalisations and helps adjust medical resources, paving the way for complementary public health indicators.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34292414
doi: 10.1186/s13244-021-01040-3
pii: 10.1186/s13244-021-01040-3
pmc: PMC8295630
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
103Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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