Which National Factors Are Most Influential in the Spread of COVID-19?
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
growth curve models
pandemic
Journal
International journal of environmental research and public health
ISSN: 1660-4601
Titre abrégé: Int J Environ Res Public Health
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101238455
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
16 07 2021
16 07 2021
Historique:
received:
27
05
2021
revised:
09
07
2021
accepted:
10
07
2021
entrez:
24
7
2021
pubmed:
25
7
2021
medline:
30
7
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The outbreak of the novel COVID-19, declared a global pandemic by WHO, is the most serious public health threat seen in terms of respiratory viruses since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. It is surprising that the total number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and the number of deaths has varied greatly across countries. Such great variations are caused by age population, health conditions, travel, economy, and environmental factors. Here, we investigated which national factors (life expectancy, aging index, human development index, percentage of malnourished people in the population, extreme poverty, economic ability, health policy, population, age distributions, etc.) influenced the spread of COVID-19 through systematic statistical analysis. First, we employed segmented growth curve models (GCMs) to model the cumulative confirmed cases for 134 countries from 1 January to 31 August 2020 (logistic and Gompertz). Thus, each country's COVID-19 spread pattern was summarized into three growth-curve model parameters. Secondly, we investigated the relationship of selected 31 national factors (from KOSIS and
Identifiants
pubmed: 34300044
pii: ijerph18147592
doi: 10.3390/ijerph18147592
pmc: PMC8307075
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : Science & Technology Policy Institute of Korea
ID : No. 0409-20200222
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