Risk of COVID-19 variant importation - How useful are travel control measures?
COVID-19
Importation risk
Variants
Journal
Infectious Disease Modelling
ISSN: 2468-0427
Titre abrégé: Infect Dis Model
Pays: China
ID NLM: 101692406
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
received:
13
05
2021
revised:
18
06
2021
accepted:
20
06
2021
entrez:
26
7
2021
pubmed:
27
7
2021
medline:
27
7
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant. By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community, we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community. We find that after an initial seeding, the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation. We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures, quarantine and travel interruptions. We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates, while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34308002
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.006
pii: S2468-0427(21)00045-2
pmc: PMC8272889
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
875-897Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors.
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