Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity.
NutNet
core-transient
extinction risk
grasslands
herbivores
nutrients
rarity
Journal
Ecology
ISSN: 1939-9170
Titre abrégé: Ecology
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0043541
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 2021
11 2021
Historique:
revised:
04
05
2021
received:
04
01
2021
accepted:
03
06
2021
pubmed:
29
7
2021
medline:
12
11
2021
entrez:
28
7
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5-12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e03504Informations de copyright
© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.
Références
Avolio, M. L., S. E. Koerner, K. J. La Pierre, K. R. Wilcox, G. W. T. Wilson, M. D. Smith, and S. L. Collins. 2014. Changes in plant community composition, not diversity, during a decade of nitrogen and phosphorus additions drive above-ground productivity in a tallgrass prairie. Journal of Ecology 102:1649-1660.
Bates, D., M. Maechler, B. Bolker, and S. Walker. 2014. lme4: linear mixed-effects models using Eigen and S4. R package version 1.1-7. https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v067i01
Borer, E. T., W. S. Harpole, P. B. Adler, E. M. Lind, J. L. Orrock, E. W. Seabloom, and M. D. Smith. 2014a. Finding generality in ecology: a model for globally distributed experiments. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5:65-73.
Borer, E. T., et al. 2014b. Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation. Nature 508:517-520.
Borer, E. T., J. B. Grace, W. S. Harpole, A. S. MacDougall, and E. W. Seabloom. 2017. A decade of insights into grassland ecosystem responses to global environmental change. Nature Ecology & Evolution 1:1-7.
Collins, S. L., and S. M. Glenn. 1991. Importance of spatial and temporal dynamics in species regional abundance and distribution. Ecology 72:654-664.
Collins, S. L., K. N. Suding, E. E. Cleland, M. Batty, S. C. Pennings, K. L. Gross, J. B. Grace, L. Gough, J. E. Fargione, and C. M. Clark. 2008. Rank clocks and plant community dynamics. Ecology 89:3534-3541.
Coyle, J. R., A. H. Hurlbert, and E. P. White. 2013. Opposing mechanisms drive richness patterns of core and transient bird species. American Naturalist 181:E83-E90.
Dawson, W., M. Fischer, and M. van Kleunen. 2012. Common and rare plant species respond differently to fertilisation and competition, whether they are alien or native. Ecology Letters 15:873-880.
Dolan, J. R., M. E. Ritchie, A. Tunin-Ley, and M. Pizay. 2009. Dynamics of core and occasional species in the marine plankton: tintinnid ciliates in the north-west Mediterranean Sea. Journal of Biogeography 36:887-895.
Duwyn, A., and A. S. MacDougall. 2015. When anthropogenic-related disturbances overwhelm demographic persistence mechanisms. Journal of Ecology 103:761-768.
Franklin, J., J. M. Serra-Diaz, A. D. Syphard, and H. M. Regan. 2016. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 113:3725-3734.
Gaston, K. J. 1994. What is rarity? In Rarity. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Gleason, H. A. 1926. The individualistic concept of the plant association. Bulletin of the Torrey Botanical Club 53:7-26.
Griggs, R. F. 1940. The ecology of rare plants. Bulletin of the Torrey Botanical Club 67:575-594.
Grime, J. 1977. Evidence for the existence of three primary strategies in plants and its relevance to ecological and evolutionary theory. American Naturalist 111:1169-1194.
Grime, J. P. 1998. Benefits of plant diversity to ecosystems: immediate, filter and founder effects. Journal of Ecology 86:902-910.
Hanski, I. 1982. Dynamics of regional distribution: the core and satellite species hypothesis. Oikos 38:210-221.
Harpole, W. S., et al. 2016. Addition of multiple limiting resources reduces grassland diversity. Nature 537:93-96.
Hautier, Y., et al. 2014. Eutrophication weakens stabilizing effects of diversity in natural grasslands. Nature 508:521-525.
Hautier, Y., et al. 2020. General destabilizing effects of eutrophication on grassland productivity at multiple spatial scales. Nature Communications 11:1-9.
Hautier, Y., D. Tilman, F. Isbell, E. W. Seabloom, E. T. Borer, and P. B. Reich. 2015. Anthropogenic environmental changes affect ecosystem stability via biodiversity. Science 348:336-340.
Hillebrand, H., et al. 2017. Biodiversity change is uncoupled from species richness trends: Consequences for conservation and monitoring. Journal of Applied Ecology 55:169-184.
Hodapp, D., et al. 2018. Spatial heterogeneity in species composition constrains plant community responses to herbivory and fertilisation. Ecology Letters 21:1364-1371.
Komatsu, K. J., et al. 2019. Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 116:17867-17873.
Kuznetsova, A., P. B. Brockhoff, and R. H. B. Christensen. 2017. lmerTest package: tests in linear mixed effects models. Journal of Statistical Software 82:1-26.
Lande, R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. American Naturalist 142:911-927.
Langley, J. A., et al. 2018. Ambient changes exceed treatment effects on plant species abundance in global change experiments. Global Change Biology 24:5668-5679.
Lenth, R., H. Singmann, J. Love, P. Buerkner, and M. Herve. 2018. Emmeans: estimated marginal means, aka least-squares means. R package version 1:3. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=emmeans
Levin, S. A., D. Cohen, and A. Hastings. 1984. Dispersal strategies in patchy environments. Theoretical Population Biology 26:165-191.
Lind, E. M., et al. 2013. Life-history constraints in grassland plant species: a growth-defence trade-off is the norm. Ecology Letters 16:513-521.
Magurran, A. E., and P. A. Henderson. 2003. Explaining the excess of rare species in natural species abundance distributions. Nature 422:714-716.
Manne, L. L., and S. L. Pimm. 2001. Beyond eight forms of rarity: which species are threatened and which will be next? Animal Conservation 4:221-229.
Matthies, D., I. Bräuer, W. Maibom, and T. Tscharntke. 2004. Population size and the risk of local extinction: empirical evidence from rare plants. Oikos 105:481-488.
Mouillot, D., N. A. J. Graham, S. Villéger, N. W. H. Mason, and D. R. Bellwood. 2013. A functional approach reveals community responses to disturbances. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 28:167-177.
Nakagawa, S., P. C. D. Johnson, and H. Schielzeth. 2017. The coefficient of determination R2 and intra-class correlation coefficient from generalized linear mixed-effects models revisited and expanded. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 14:20170213.
R Core Team. 2020. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Version 4.0.2. R Core Team, Vienna, Austria. https://www.R-project.org
Rabinowitz, D. 1981. Seven forms of rarity. In The biological aspects of rare plant conservation. Springer, Somerset, New Jersey, USA.
Rabinowitz, D., J. K. Rapp, and P. M. Dixon. 1984. Competitive abilities of sparse grass species: means of persistence or cause of abundance. Ecology 65:1144-1154.
Reich, P. B., D. S. Ellsworth, M. B. Walters, J. M. Vose, C. Gresham, J. C. Volin, and W. D. Bowman. 1999. Generality of leaf trait relationships: a test across six biomes. Ecology 80:1955-1969.
Ripley, B., and W. Venables. 2016. Package ‘nnet’: feed-forward neural networks and multinomial log-linear models. CRAN R Core Team. https://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/pub/MASS4/
Roxburgh, S. H., K. Shea, and J. B. Wilson. 2004. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis: Patch dynamics and mechanisms of species coexistence. Ecology 85:359-371.
Seabloom, E. W., et al. 2020. Increasing effects of chronic nutrient enrichment on plant diversity loss and ecosystem productivity over time. Ecology 102:3218.
Seabloom, E. W., E. T. Borer, Y. M. Buckley, E. E. Cleland, K. F. Davies, J. Firn, W. S. Harpole, Y. Hautier, E. M. Lind, and A. S. MacDougall. 2015. Plant species’ origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands. Nature Communications 6:7710.
Shade, A., and J. A. Gilbert. 2015. Temporal patterns of rarity provide a more complete view of microbial diversity. Trends in Microbiology 23:335-340.
Shade, A., S. E. Jones, J. G. Caporaso, J. Handelsman, R. Knight, N. Fierer, and J. A. Gilbert. 2014. Conditionally rare taxa disproportionately contribute to temporal changes in microbial diversity. mBio 5:e01371-14.
Shoemaker, L. G., et al. 2020. Integrating the underlying structure of stochasticity into community ecology. Ecology 101:1-17.
Steffen, W., et al. 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347:1259855.
Suding, K. N., S. L. Collins, L. Gough, C. Clark, E. E. Cleland, K. L. Gross, D. G. Milchunas, and S. Pennings. 2005. Functional- and abundance-based mechanisms explain diversity loss due to N fertilization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 102:4387-4392.
Supp, S. R., D. N. Koons, and S. K. M. Ernest. 2015. Using life history trade-offs to understand core-transient structuring of a small mammal community. Ecosphere 6:1-15.
Tilman, D. 1993. Species richness of experimental productivity gradients: how important is colonization limitation? Ecology 74:2179-2191.
Ulrich, W., and M. Ollik. 2004. Frequent and occasional species and the shape of relative-abundance distributions. Diversity and Distributions 10:263-269.
Umaña, M. N., C. Zhang, M. Cao, L. Lin, and N. G. Swenson. 2017. A core-transient framework for trait-based community ecology: an example from a tropical tree seedling community. Ecology Letters 20:619-628.
Wilfahrt, P. A., et al. 2021. Species persistence and mean rank abundance in global Nutrient Network plots from 2007-2019 ver 1. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/e21f6c3cd2615b9295f9e493f6c04591