Predictive model for systemic recurrence following cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radical nephroureterectomy for high risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is increasingly used prior to radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). Systemic recurrence (SR) carries a dismal prognosis. We sought to determine risk factors associated with SR in this setting. We evaluated a multi-center database of patients with UTUC who received cisplatin-based NAC before RNU. Final pathology at RNU was dichotomized into ypT<2 vs ypT≥2. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with SR. Three groups were defined based on the number of significant risk factors (groups 1, 2, 3 for 0-1, 2, 3 risk factors, respectively) and evaluated for recurrence-free survival (RFS) using the Kaplan-Meier method. 106 patients were identified between 2004 and 2018. Median age was 67.0 years [IQR = 61-73.3]; 57 (54%) and 49 (46 %) patients received MVAC and GC, respectively. Final pathological stage was ypT<2 in 57 (54%); 23% (24/106) had SR. On univariable analysis, pathological variables on final specimen including ypT≥2, lymphovascular invasion (ypLVI), and nodal involvement were associated with SR. On multivariable analysis, ypLVI OR = 4.1 (95% CI 1.2-13.6; P = 0.024) and pathological nodal involvement OR = 4.5 (95% CI 1.3-15.7; P = 0.017) were predictive of recurrence. Stratifying by the number of risk factors, the 2-year RFS was 95%, 55%, and 18% for groups 1, 2, and 3 respectively (log-rank <0.001). This model evaluates the risk of SR following NAC and RNU to guide counseling and decision-making after surgery. Adverse pathological variable including ypLVI and nodal involvement, in combination with ypT-stage, are strongly associated with SR.

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