Quantitative decision making in animal health surveillance: Bovine Tuberculosis Surveillance in Belgium as case study.
Bovine Tuberculosis
Cost-effectiveness
Modelling
Surveillance
Journal
Transboundary and emerging diseases
ISSN: 1865-1682
Titre abrégé: Transbound Emerg Dis
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101319538
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2022
Jul 2022
Historique:
received:
07
01
2021
accepted:
29
07
2021
pubmed:
1
8
2021
medline:
22
7
2022
entrez:
31
7
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Despite eradication and control measures applied across Europe, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a constant threat. In Belgium, after several years of official bTB-free status, routine movement testing, as currently practiced, revealed itself inadequate to detect some herds affected by sporadic breakdowns. The aim of this study was to assess different surveillance system components that strike a balance between cost and effectiveness and to identify sustainable alternatives, which substantiate a bTB-free claim while ensuring early detection and acceptance by various animal health stakeholders. For this pupose, a stochastic iteration model was used to simulate the current surveillance system's expected performance in terms of detection sensitivity and specificity. These results were then descriptively compared with observed field results. Second, the cost and effectiveness of simulated alternative surveillance components were quantified. Sensitivity analyses were performed to measure key assumptions' impacts (i.e. regarding diagnostic tests and true prevalence). The results confirmed discrepancies between the observed and simulated expected performance of bTB surveillance in Belgium. Second, simulated alternatives showed that interferon gamma (IFN-γ) and serological testing with antibody-enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (Ab-ELISA) targeting at-risk herds would enable an increase in the overall cost effectiveness (sensitivity and specificity) of the Belgian bTB surveillance system. Sensitivity analyses showed that results remained constant despite the modification of some key assumptions. While the performance of the ongoing bTB surveillance system in Belgium was questionable at the time of the study, this exercise highlighted that not only sensitivity but specificity also are key drivers of surveillance performance. The quantitative approach, taking into consideration various stakeholders' needs and priorities, revealed itself to be a useful tool in allowing evidence-based decision making for future tuberculosis surveillance in Belgium, in line with the international standards.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e119-e129Informations de copyright
© 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.
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