Linear Model Identification for Personalized Prediction and Control in Diabetes.

Type-1 diabetes (T1D) is a disease characterized by impaired blood glucose (BG) regulation, forcing patients to multiple daily therapeutic actions, including insulin administration. T1D management could considerably benefit of accurate BG predictions and automated insulin delivery. For both tasks, the large inter- and intra-individual variability in glucose response represents a major challenge. This work investigates different techniques to learn individualized linear models of glucose response to insulin and meal, suitable for model-based prediction and control. We focus on data-driven techniques for linear model-learning and compare the state-of-art parametric pipeline with a novel non-parametric approach based on Gaussian regression and Stable-Spline kernel. On data collected by 11 T1D individuals, the effectiveness of different models was evaluated by measuring root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (COD), and time gain associated with BG predictors. Among the tested approaches, the non-parametric technique results in the best prediction performance: median RMSE = 29.8 mg/dL, and median COD = 57.4%, for a prediction horizon (PH) of 60 min. With respect to the state-of-the-art parametric techniques, the non-parametric approach grants a COD improvement of about 2%, 7%, 21%, and 41% for PH = 30, 60, 90, and 120 min (paired-sample t-test p ≤ 0.001, p = 0.003, p = 0.03, and p = 0.07 respectively). Non-parametric linear model-learning grants statistically significant improvement with respect to the state-of-art parametric approach. The higher PH, the more pronounced the improvement. The use of a linear non-parametric model-learning approach for model-based prediction and control could bring to a more prompt, safe and effective T1D management.