How Relative Age Effects Associate with Football Players' Market Values: Indicators of Losing Talent and Wasting Money.
drafts
market value
return of investment
talent development
talent selection
Journal
Sports (Basel, Switzerland)
ISSN: 2075-4663
Titre abrégé: Sports (Basel)
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101722684
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 Jul 2021
09 Jul 2021
Historique:
received:
28
05
2021
revised:
02
07
2021
accepted:
07
07
2021
entrez:
6
8
2021
pubmed:
7
8
2021
medline:
7
8
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In football, annual age-group categorization leads to relative age effects (RAEs) in talent development. Given such trends, relative age may also associate with market values. This study analyzed the relationship between RAEs and market values of youth players. Age category, birthdate, and market values of 11,738 youth male football players were obtained from the "transfermarkt.de" database, which delivers a good proxy for real market values. RAEs were calculated using odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Significant RAEs were found across all age-groups ( Assuming an equal distribution of football talent exists across annual cohorts, results indicate the selection and market value of young professional players is dynamic. Findings suggest a potential biased selection, and undervaluing of Q4 players in younger age groups, as their representation and market value increased over time. By contrast, the changing representations and market values of Q1 players suggest initial overvaluing in performance and monetary terms. Therefore, this inefficient talent selection and the accompanying waste of money should be improved.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
In football, annual age-group categorization leads to relative age effects (RAEs) in talent development. Given such trends, relative age may also associate with market values. This study analyzed the relationship between RAEs and market values of youth players.
METHODS
METHODS
Age category, birthdate, and market values of 11,738 youth male football players were obtained from the "transfermarkt.de" database, which delivers a good proxy for real market values. RAEs were calculated using odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).
RESULTS
RESULTS
Significant RAEs were found across all age-groups (
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Assuming an equal distribution of football talent exists across annual cohorts, results indicate the selection and market value of young professional players is dynamic. Findings suggest a potential biased selection, and undervaluing of Q4 players in younger age groups, as their representation and market value increased over time. By contrast, the changing representations and market values of Q1 players suggest initial overvaluing in performance and monetary terms. Therefore, this inefficient talent selection and the accompanying waste of money should be improved.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34357933
pii: sports9070099
doi: 10.3390/sports9070099
pmc: PMC8309691
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
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