Shrinkage in serial intervals across transmission generations of COVID-19.
COVID-19
Contact tracing
Serial interval
Statistical modelling
Transmission generation
Journal
Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Titre abrégé: J Theor Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376342
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
21 11 2021
21 11 2021
Historique:
received:
13
03
2021
revised:
06
08
2021
accepted:
08
08
2021
pubmed:
15
8
2021
medline:
10
9
2021
entrez:
14
8
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
One of the key epidemiological characteristics that shape the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the serial interval (SI). Although SI is commonly considered following a probability distribution at a population scale, recent studies reported a slight shrinkage (or contraction) of the mean of effective SI across transmission generations or over time. Here, we develop a likelihood-based statistical inference framework with truncation to explore the change in SI across transmission generations after adjusting the impacts of case isolation. The COVID-19 contact tracing surveillance data in Hong Kong are used for exemplification. We find that for COVID-19, the mean of individual SI is likely to shrink with a factor at 0.72 per generation (95%CI: 0.54, 0.96) as the transmission generation increases, where a threshold may exist as the lower boundary of this shrinking process. We speculate that one of the probable explanations for the shrinkage in SI might be an outcome due to the competition among multiple candidate infectors within the same case cluster. Thus, the nonpharmaceutical interventive strategies are crucially important to block the transmission chains, and mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34390731
pii: S0022-5193(21)00280-0
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110861
pmc: PMC8356772
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
110861Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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