Predictors of COVID-19 epidemics in countries of the World Health Organization African Region.
Journal
Nature medicine
ISSN: 1546-170X
Titre abrégé: Nat Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9502015
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 2021
11 2021
Historique:
received:
07
05
2021
accepted:
05
08
2021
pubmed:
5
9
2021
medline:
15
12
2021
entrez:
4
9
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region have experienced a wide range of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics. This study aimed to identify predictors of the timing of the first COVID-19 case and the per capita mortality in WHO African Region countries during the first and second pandemic waves and to test for associations with the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses. Using a region-wide, country-based observational study, we found that the first case was detected earlier in countries with more urban populations, higher international connectivity and greater COVID-19 test capacity but later in island nations. Predictors of a high first wave per capita mortality rate included a more urban population, higher pre-pandemic international connectivity and a higher prevalence of HIV. Countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems were worst affected by the disease, the imposition of restrictions or both, making any benefit of more stringent countermeasures difficult to detect. Predictors for the second wave were similar to the first. Second wave per capita mortality could be predicted from that of the first wave. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights unanticipated vulnerabilities to infectious disease in Africa that should be taken into account in future pandemic preparedness planning.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34480125
doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01491-7
pii: 10.1038/s41591-021-01491-7
pmc: PMC8604723
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2041-2047Subventions
Organisme : World Health Organization
ID : 001
Pays : International
Organisme : DH | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)
ID : 16/136/33
Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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