Prediction of an Imminent Fracture After an Index Fracture - Models Derived From the Frisbee Cohort.
BMD
FALL
IMMINENT FRACTURE
OSTEOPOROSIS
PREDICTION MODEL
Journal
Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research
ISSN: 1523-4681
Titre abrégé: J Bone Miner Res
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 8610640
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 2022
01 2022
Historique:
revised:
12
08
2021
received:
29
03
2021
accepted:
29
08
2021
pubmed:
8
9
2021
medline:
15
3
2022
entrez:
7
9
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Patients who sustain a fracture are at greatest risk of recurrent fracture during the next 2 years. We propose three models to identify subjects most at risk of an imminent fracture, according to fracture site (any fracture, major osteoporotic fracture [MOF] or central). They were constructed using data of the prospective Frisbee cohort, which includes 3560 postmenopausal women aged 60 to 85 years who were followed for at least 5 years. A total of 881 subjects had a first incident validated fragility fracture before December 2018. Among these, we validated 130 imminent fractures occurring within the next 2 years; 79 were MOFs, and 88 were central fractures. Clinical risk factors were re-evaluated at the time of the index fracture. Fine and Gray proportional hazard models were derived separately for each group of fractures. The following risk factors were significantly associated with the risk of any imminent fracture: total hip bone mineral density (BMD) (p < 0.001), a fall history (p < 0.001), and comorbidities (p = 0.03). Age (p = 0.05 and p = 0.03, respectively) and a central fracture as the index fracture (p = 0.04 and p = 0.005, respectively) were additional predictors of MOFs and central fractures. The three prediction models are presented as nomograms. The calibration curves and the Brier scores based on bootstrap resampling showed calibration scores of 0.089 for MOF, 0.094 for central fractures, and 0.132 for any fractures. The predictive accuracy of the models expressed as area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve (AUC) were 0.74 for central fractures, 0.72 for MOFs, and 0.66 for all fractures, respectively. These AUCs compare well with those of FRAX and Garvan to predict the 5- or 10-year fracture probability. In summary, five predictors (BMD, age, comorbidities, falls, and central fracture as the incident fracture) allow the calculation with a reasonable accuracy of the imminent risk of fracture at different sites (MOF, central fracture, and any fracture) after a recent sentinel fracture. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
59-67Informations de copyright
© 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
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