Dynamic Risk Prediction of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid Among Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis in the USA.
Alkaline phosphatase
Paris II
Primary biliary cirrhosis
Journal
Digestive diseases and sciences
ISSN: 1573-2568
Titre abrégé: Dig Dis Sci
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7902782
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 2022
08 2022
Historique:
received:
19
02
2021
accepted:
05
08
2021
pubmed:
10
9
2021
medline:
20
7
2022
entrez:
9
9
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains the first-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC); however, inadequate treatment response (ITR) is common. The UK-PBC Consortium developed the modified UDCA Response Score (m-URS) to predict ITR (using alkaline phosphatase [ALP] > 1.67 times the upper limit of normal [*ULN]) at 12 months post-UDCA initiation). Using data from the US-based Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium, we assessed the m-URS in our multi-racial cohort. We then used a dynamic modeling approach to improve prediction accuracy. Using data collected at the time of UDCA initiation, we assessed the m-URS using the original formula; then, by calibrating coefficients to our data, we also assessed whether it remained accurate when using Paris II criteria for ITR. Next, we developed and validated a dynamic risk prediction model that included post-UDCA initiation laboratory data. Among 1578 patients (13% men; 8% African American, 9% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Islander; 25% Hispanic), the rate of ITR was 27% using ALP > 1.67*ULN and 45% using Paris II criteria. M-URS accuracy was "very good" (AUROC = 0.87, sensitivity = 0.62, and specificity = 0.82) for ALP > 1.67*ULN and "moderate" (AUROC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.57, and specificity = 0.70) for Paris II. Our dynamic model significantly improved accuracy for both definitions of ITR (ALP > 1.67*ULN: AUROC = 0.91; Paris II: AUROC = 0.81); specificity approached 100%. Roughly 9% of patients in our cohort were at the highest risk of ITR. Early identification of patients who will not respond to UDCA treatment using a dynamic prediction model based on longitudinal, repeated risk factor measurements may facilitate earlier introduction of adjuvant treatment.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains the first-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC); however, inadequate treatment response (ITR) is common. The UK-PBC Consortium developed the modified UDCA Response Score (m-URS) to predict ITR (using alkaline phosphatase [ALP] > 1.67 times the upper limit of normal [*ULN]) at 12 months post-UDCA initiation). Using data from the US-based Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium, we assessed the m-URS in our multi-racial cohort. We then used a dynamic modeling approach to improve prediction accuracy.
METHODS
Using data collected at the time of UDCA initiation, we assessed the m-URS using the original formula; then, by calibrating coefficients to our data, we also assessed whether it remained accurate when using Paris II criteria for ITR. Next, we developed and validated a dynamic risk prediction model that included post-UDCA initiation laboratory data.
RESULTS
Among 1578 patients (13% men; 8% African American, 9% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Islander; 25% Hispanic), the rate of ITR was 27% using ALP > 1.67*ULN and 45% using Paris II criteria. M-URS accuracy was "very good" (AUROC = 0.87, sensitivity = 0.62, and specificity = 0.82) for ALP > 1.67*ULN and "moderate" (AUROC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.57, and specificity = 0.70) for Paris II. Our dynamic model significantly improved accuracy for both definitions of ITR (ALP > 1.67*ULN: AUROC = 0.91; Paris II: AUROC = 0.81); specificity approached 100%. Roughly 9% of patients in our cohort were at the highest risk of ITR.
CONCLUSIONS
Early identification of patients who will not respond to UDCA treatment using a dynamic prediction model based on longitudinal, repeated risk factor measurements may facilitate earlier introduction of adjuvant treatment.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34499271
doi: 10.1007/s10620-021-07219-4
pii: 10.1007/s10620-021-07219-4
doi:
Substances chimiques
Cholagogues and Choleretics
0
Ursodeoxycholic Acid
724L30Y2QR
Alkaline Phosphatase
EC 3.1.3.1
Bilirubin
RFM9X3LJ49
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
4170-4180Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.
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