Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data.
COVID-19
CoMix
Reproduction number
SARS-CoV-2
School closure
Social contacts
Journal
BMC medicine
ISSN: 1741-7015
Titre abrégé: BMC Med
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101190723
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 09 2021
10 09 2021
Historique:
received:
09
03
2021
accepted:
26
08
2021
entrez:
10
9
2021
pubmed:
11
9
2021
medline:
16
10
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Schools were closed in England on 4 January 2021 as part of increased national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK government reopened schools on 8 March. Although there was evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings and the resulting impact on the overall transmission rate in the population were not clear. We measured social contacts of > 5000 participants weekly from March 2020, including periods when schools were both open and closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number. Our analysis indicates that reopening all schools under the same measures as previous periods that combined lockdown with face-to-face schooling would be likely to increase the reproduction number substantially. Assuming a baseline of 0.8, we estimated a likely increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 with the reopening of all schools or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone. Our results suggest that reopening schools would likely halt the fall in cases observed between January and March 2021 and would risk a return to rising infections, but these estimates relied heavily on the latest estimates or reproduction number and the validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we used at the time of reopening.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Schools were closed in England on 4 January 2021 as part of increased national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK government reopened schools on 8 March. Although there was evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings and the resulting impact on the overall transmission rate in the population were not clear.
METHODS
We measured social contacts of > 5000 participants weekly from March 2020, including periods when schools were both open and closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number.
RESULTS
Our analysis indicates that reopening all schools under the same measures as previous periods that combined lockdown with face-to-face schooling would be likely to increase the reproduction number substantially. Assuming a baseline of 0.8, we estimated a likely increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 with the reopening of all schools or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone.
CONCLUSION
Our results suggest that reopening schools would likely halt the fall in cases observed between January and March 2021 and would risk a return to rising infections, but these estimates relied heavily on the latest estimates or reproduction number and the validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we used at the time of reopening.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34503493
doi: 10.1186/s12916-021-02107-0
pii: 10.1186/s12916-021-02107-0
pmc: PMC8428960
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
233Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 206471/Z/17/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 210758/Z/18/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC_19065
Pays : United Kingdom
Investigateurs
Yang Liu
(Y)
Joel Hellewell
(J)
Nicholas G Davies
(NG)
C Julian Villabona-Arenas
(CJ)
Rosalind M Eggo
(RM)
Akira Endo
(A)
Nikos I Bosse
(NI)
Hamish P Gibbs
(HP)
Carl A B Pearson
(CAB)
Fiona Yueqian Sun
(FY)
Mark Jit
(M)
Kathleen O'Reilly
(K)
Yalda Jafari
(Y)
Katherine E Atkins
(KE)
Naomi R Waterlow
(NR)
Alicia Rosello
(A)
Yung-Wai Desmond Chan
(YD)
Anna M Foss
(AM)
Billy J Quilty
(BJ)
Timothy W Russell
(TW)
Stefan Flasche
(S)
Simon R Procter
(SR)
William Waites
(W)
Rosanna C Barnard
(RC)
Adam J Kucharski
(AJ)
Thibaut Jombart
(T)
Graham Medley
(G)
Rachel Lowe
(R)
Fabienne Krauer
(F)
Damien C Tully
(DC)
Kiesha Prem
(K)
Jiayao Lei
(J)
Oliver Brady
(O)
Frank G Sandmann
(FG)
Sophie R Meakin
(SR)
Kaja Abbas
(K)
Gwenan M Knight
(GM)
Matthew Quaife
(M)
Mihaly Koltai
(M)
Sam Abbott
(S)
Samuel Clifford
(S)
Informations de copyright
© 2021. The Author(s).
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