Country-level land carbon sink and its causing components by the middle of the twenty-first century.

Carbon sink Carbon storage Earth system models Net primary productivity Residence time Terrestrial ecosystems

Journal

Ecological processes
ISSN: 2192-1709
Titre abrégé: Ecol Process
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101626996

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
2021
Historique:
received: 24 02 2021
accepted: 26 07 2021
entrez: 20 9 2021
pubmed: 21 9 2021
medline: 21 9 2021
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Countries have long been making efforts by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to mitigate climate change. In the agreements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, involved countries have committed to reduction targets. However, carbon (C) sink and its involving processes by natural ecosystems remain difficult to quantify. Using a transient traceability framework, we estimated country-level land C sink and its causing components by 2050 simulated by 12 Earth System Models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5. The top 20 countries with highest C sink have the potential to sequester 62 Pg C in total, among which, Russia, Canada, USA, China, and Brazil sequester the most. This C sink consists of four components: production-driven change, turnover-driven change, change in instantaneous C storage potential, and interaction between production-driven change and turnover-driven change. The four components account for 49.5%, 28.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% of the land C sink, respectively. The model-based estimates highlight that land C sink potentially offsets a substantial proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, especially for countries where net primary production (NPP) likely increases substantially and inherent residence time elongates.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
Countries have long been making efforts by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to mitigate climate change. In the agreements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, involved countries have committed to reduction targets. However, carbon (C) sink and its involving processes by natural ecosystems remain difficult to quantify.
METHODS METHODS
Using a transient traceability framework, we estimated country-level land C sink and its causing components by 2050 simulated by 12 Earth System Models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5.
RESULTS RESULTS
The top 20 countries with highest C sink have the potential to sequester 62 Pg C in total, among which, Russia, Canada, USA, China, and Brazil sequester the most. This C sink consists of four components: production-driven change, turnover-driven change, change in instantaneous C storage potential, and interaction between production-driven change and turnover-driven change. The four components account for 49.5%, 28.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% of the land C sink, respectively.
CONCLUSION CONCLUSIONS
The model-based estimates highlight that land C sink potentially offsets a substantial proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, especially for countries where net primary production (NPP) likely increases substantially and inherent residence time elongates.

Identifiants

pubmed: 34540522
doi: 10.1186/s13717-021-00328-y
pii: 328
pmc: PMC8438548
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

61

Informations de copyright

© The Author(s) 2021.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Références

Global Biogeochem Cycles. 2015 Jun;29(6):775-792
pubmed: 27642229
Ecol Lett. 2020 Mar;23(3):527-536
pubmed: 31912647
Nature. 2014 Oct 9;514(7521):213-7
pubmed: 25252980
Nat Ecol Evol. 2019 Sep;3(9):1309-1320
pubmed: 31427733
Glob Chang Biol. 2015 Oct;21(10):3846-53
pubmed: 25846478
New Phytol. 2017 Apr;214(1):41-47
pubmed: 28001290
Sci Rep. 2017 Jul 6;7(1):4765
pubmed: 28684755
Sci Adv. 2016 May 13;2(5):e1501639
pubmed: 27386528
Glob Chang Biol. 2020 Sep;26(9):5052-5062
pubmed: 32539197
Science. 2015 May 22;348(6237):895-9
pubmed: 25999504
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Oct 13;112(41):12723-8
pubmed: 26417074
Glob Chang Biol. 2017 Oct;23(10):4376-4385
pubmed: 28370946
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Mar 4;111(9):3280-5
pubmed: 24344265

Auteurs

Lifen Jiang (L)

Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA.

Junyi Liang (J)

College of Grassland Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083 China.

Xingjie Lu (X)

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275 Guangdong China.

Enqing Hou (E)

Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA.

Forrest M Hoffman (FM)

Computational Sciences & Engineering Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.

Yiqi Luo (Y)

Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA.
Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA.

Classifications MeSH