Elucidating Drivers for Variations in the Explosive Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic Among People Who Inject Drugs in Pakistan.
city-level associations
contextual factors
high-risk behavior
mathematical model
population-attributable fraction
professional injectors
Journal
Open forum infectious diseases
ISSN: 2328-8957
Titre abrégé: Open Forum Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101637045
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2021
Sep 2021
Historique:
received:
25
06
2021
accepted:
01
09
2021
entrez:
29
9
2021
pubmed:
30
9
2021
medline:
30
9
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Pakistan's explosive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among people who inject drugs (PWID) varies widely across cities. We evaluated possible drivers for these variations. Multivariable regression analyses were undertaken using data from 5 national surveys among PWID (n = 18 467; 2005-2017) to determine risk factors associated with variations in city-level HIV prevalence. A dynamic HIV model was used to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF; proportion of HIV infections prevented over 10 years when that risk factor is removed) of these risk factors to HIV transmission and impact on HIV incidence of reducing their prevalence. Regression analyses suggested that city-level HIV prevalence is strongly associated with the prevalence of using professional injectors at last injection, heroin use in last month, and injecting ≥4 times per day. Through calibrating a model to these associations, we estimate that the 10-year PAFs of using professional injectors, heroin use, and frequent injecting are 45.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 4.3%-79.7%), 45.9% (95% UI, 8.1%-78.4%), and 22.2% (95% UI, 2.0%-58.4%), respectively. Reducing to lowest city-level prevalences of using professional injectors (2.8%; median 89.9% reduction), heroin use (0.9%; median 91.2% reduction), and frequent injecting (0.1%; median 91.8% reduction) in 2020 reduces overall HIV incidence by 52.7% (95% UI, 6.1%-82.0%), 53.0% (95% UI, 11.3%-80.2%), and 28.1% (95% UI, 2.7%-66.6%), respectively, over 10 years. Interventions should focus on these risk factors to control Pakistan's explosive HIV epidemic among PWID, including a concomitant expansion of high-coverage needle/syringe provision, opioid substitution therapy, and antiretroviral therapy.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Pakistan's explosive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among people who inject drugs (PWID) varies widely across cities. We evaluated possible drivers for these variations.
METHODS
METHODS
Multivariable regression analyses were undertaken using data from 5 national surveys among PWID (n = 18 467; 2005-2017) to determine risk factors associated with variations in city-level HIV prevalence. A dynamic HIV model was used to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF; proportion of HIV infections prevented over 10 years when that risk factor is removed) of these risk factors to HIV transmission and impact on HIV incidence of reducing their prevalence.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Regression analyses suggested that city-level HIV prevalence is strongly associated with the prevalence of using professional injectors at last injection, heroin use in last month, and injecting ≥4 times per day. Through calibrating a model to these associations, we estimate that the 10-year PAFs of using professional injectors, heroin use, and frequent injecting are 45.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 4.3%-79.7%), 45.9% (95% UI, 8.1%-78.4%), and 22.2% (95% UI, 2.0%-58.4%), respectively. Reducing to lowest city-level prevalences of using professional injectors (2.8%; median 89.9% reduction), heroin use (0.9%; median 91.2% reduction), and frequent injecting (0.1%; median 91.8% reduction) in 2020 reduces overall HIV incidence by 52.7% (95% UI, 6.1%-82.0%), 53.0% (95% UI, 11.3%-80.2%), and 28.1% (95% UI, 2.7%-66.6%), respectively, over 10 years.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Interventions should focus on these risk factors to control Pakistan's explosive HIV epidemic among PWID, including a concomitant expansion of high-coverage needle/syringe provision, opioid substitution therapy, and antiretroviral therapy.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34584901
doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab457
pii: ofab457
pmc: PMC8465332
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
ofab457Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.
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